Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Obama's V.P.

People keep asking me who I think Barack Obama will choose as his running mate and when it will happen. I'm not paid to give opinions, nor are my opinions likely worth much. But from a purely reporting standpoint, here are my hunches (thanks largely to the national reporting done on this topic).

Here's what we know:

Delaware Senator Joe Biden (and former Prez candidate), Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Indiana Senator Evan Bayh and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine seem to be the four most-mentioned possibilities.

We know Obama is planning a big rally Saturday in Springfield, Illinois, the city where he announced his prez campaign. He is supposed to appear with his V.P. choice.

We know Obama will notify supporters via text message of his choice beforehand.

We know Obama has a two day travel trip in Virginia with supporters including Kaine.

Would Obama send out the text message before he concluded his Virginia trip? Doubtful.

Would Obama pick Kaine after already spending time with him on tour in Virginia and then campaign with him again Saturday? Doubtful.

Would Obama really pick Bayh--would he really think Bayh will deliver the Republican state of Indiana just by appearing on the ballot with him? Seems doubtful.

Would Obama really pick Sebelius on the day she is campaigning for him in Iowa? Seems doubtful.

By process of elimination, to me, that leaves Biden, who hasn't been out campaigning for Obama this week. Of course, I could be wrong. Of course, Obama could also pick someone other than the four most often-mentioned people.


Shane Vander Hart said...

I think it will be either Bayh or Biden. An important factor in a VP pick would be having balance on the ticket. Obama is inexperienced when it comes to foreign policy and national security. Sebilius and Kaine won't help him there.

Pro's for Kaine would perhaps be delivering Virginia, but honestly with the military population I would be surprised to see it go to him. Considering that he's a new governor and hasn't even completed a term that would be another con.

Sebilus is relatively unknown, and there is no way that she'll deliver Kansas. I think she'll be lucky to win re-election in Kansas if Brownback decides to run against her.

Biden has some baggage with past racial remarks. Really Bayh has the least baggage, and being a moderate would possibly make the ticket more appealing to independents.

It'll be interesting.

Anonymous said...


You are a genius about your pick, although your timing was a big off:)

Anonymous said...

Oops. I mean a bit off.