Only 99, Senator?

John Edwards is celebrating this weekend the number 99. He's now made it to all of Iowa's counties this campaign season, making him the only candidate to do that so far. You'll remember Tommy Thompson pledged to visit all counties, as well. Although when he did it, he made a slight (major, perhaps, if you live in Iowa) that he would visit all 100 counties. I mentioned this to Edwards. He seemed a bit surprised about Thompson's counting problems.

Edwards refused to say he would boycott any other states that move before Iowa's caucuses on January 3 (if any state would dare to do so). He said he assumes Iowa would just move again if another state tried to leapfrog. Edwards also refused to give me a prediction on how well he would have to do in the caucuses. Iowa Democratic long-time activists tell me they think Edwards has to win Iowa to stop Hillary Clinton's current stranglehold in the national polls. I'm told a big reason Edwards has to win here is that he already ran here once. And he nearly caught John Kerry in the final days of the campaign. So people in Iowa already know him.

The Edwards camp send me a campaign memo outlining what he should do well in the caucus. They point out how he's not only been to every county so far, but he's also taken questions from Iowans in every county. No other candidate, the memo writes, has done this. This is yet another shot towards Clinton, who other camps love to point doesn't always take questions from the audience and almost never takes questions from the Iowa media. Obama seemed to go through a period where he didn't give much media access either. Although, he has picked that up in the past several months.

Anyway, I've included the Edwards memo below (this is pretty lengthy...I can't figure out how to do an attachment to this, which undoubtedly would keep it a little cleaner). It lays out why Edwards will do well because of his 99 county strategy, the fact that he's really hitting rural areas and that he hasn't really begun tv ads yet like Obama and Clinton have.



MEMORANDUM



TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Harrison Hickman
Global Strategy Group, LLC
Jennifer O’Malley Dillon
Iowa State Director
John Edwards for President
RE: 99 County, 50 State Strategy
DATE: October 27, 2007

On Saturday, as he visits Coulter, Iowa, John Edwards reaches a critical milestone: holding events at which he answered questions from Iowans in all 99 counties.
No other Democratic candidate has achieved this goal – including Senators Obama and Clinton who have each spent similar numbers of days in Iowa. This is significant to the campaign for at least three reasons:

• It represents a significant achievement for the campaign and highlights the growing strength of
Edwards’ organization in all 99 counties.
• It reflects Edwards’ ability to go anywhere in Iowa -- especially rural and traditionally Republican areas – and connect with regular people. Other leading candidates have stuck more heavily to urban and traditionally safe Democratic areas.
• It demonstrates Edwards’ willingness to stand before Iowans and take their questions on any
topic, rather than sticking to tightly scripted events and limiting access from Iowans and reporters.
Edwards’ 99 County, 50 State Strategy
John Edwards’ strategy for winning the caucuses rests on building the strongest and deepest
organization in each of Iowa’s 99 counties, including a focus on rural Iowa. Similarly, his strategy for the general election will be to compete in all 50 states rather than trying to cherry pick the electoral map and squeak out a narrow electoral victory.
Edwards has unique advantages – in both the Iowa Caucuses and the general election – that set him apart from other Democrats in his ability to pursue a 99 county, 50 state strategy. He is the only candidate who has ever won an election in a solidly “red” state, he is the only candidate who comes from a rural community, and he is the only candidate from the South – which has been home to the only Democratic presidents of the last 40 years.
These advantages are confirmed by numerous published polls, which document that he is – by nearly every measure – the strongest Democratic candidate against Republicans like Giuliani, Romney, McCain, and Thompson. This is true in nationwide polling as well as in the key battleground states that will decide the November 2008 presidential election and control of Congress.

Global Strategy Group 2

Clinton, Obama Caucus Strategies Limit Their Appeal
An analysis of travel patterns by Senator Clinton, Senator Obama, and John Edwards demonstrates that Senators Obama and Clinton are pursuing a fundamentally different – and more narrow – strategy than John Edwards.
As of Saturday, Edwards will have spent 53 days in Iowa and have visited all 99 counties, taking question from Iowans in every county along the way. Obama has spent a nearly identical number of days in Iowa – 52 – but has only visited 59 counties. Senator Clinton has visited 38 days – but reached only 39 counties.
The reason for the disparity is simple: John Edwards has placed a higher priority on visiting small, rural communities, talking to the people who live there, and answering their questions.
Why the 99 County Strategy Matters The Iowa Caucus is a unique process that requires not only garnering the most supporters but also requires a broad and deep campaign structure in all of Iowa’s 99 counties. A candidate who does not visit certain counties – or refuses to take questions from local Iowans and/or local reporters – will have a much more difficult time successfully organizing those counties.
The Edwards campaign is the strongest and deepest of any campaign in Iowa. Edwards began this process with an existing base of support. In fact, in 2004, John Edwards either won or came in 2nd in 52 of Iowa’s 99 counties. The campaign has spent 2007 building on its support from 2004 and successfully expanding it across the state.
The caucuses are very different than a primary because they require asking people to spend two hours in the evening in the dead of winter in January to publicly show who they support. This is done in front of their neighbors, their family and friends, and maybe even their bosses. Because of the public and demanding nature of this process, it is critical that candidate’s support is deep enough to withstand the barrage that will come at them on caucus night from the other campaigns.
With Iowa’s proportionally representative system, a campaign that can turn out five additional caucus goers in 100 rural precincts will almost certainly make greater gains than a rival campaign that can turn out an additional 500 caucus goers in one precinct.

Global Strategy Group 3
John Edwards is the only candidate from a rural, red state. He grew up in a rural community. He was the first candidate to outline a comprehensive agenda to revitalize rural communities. He is the only candidate to have announced an organization of 99 rural county chairs (in April) and 1000 rural supporters. Additionally, the campaign is on track to announce steering committees in all 99 counties, demonstrating John Edwards’ deep support in areas both rural and urban. The strength of his organization in rural Iowa is a major asset for the campaign.
The campaign has also announced a 1500 member Women for Edwards organization – far surpassing the total number of women any other campaign has announced. They represent all 99 counties and more than 800 precincts throughout the state.
With 15 offices, more than 100 field organizers, county chairs for all 99 counties, and more than 75 percent of precinct captains already identified, the campaign has a strong organization and continues to build upon this strength. The campaign also benefits from the endorsements of the United Steelworkers, the United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners in America, the Iowa Postal Workers Union, the Transport Workers Union of America, the United Mine Workers of America, and most recently, the Iowa State Council of the Service Employees International Union along with state councils in 10 other states who are lending their resources and credibility to the effort in Iowa. Together, these unions represent about 17,000 workers and their families in Iowa – a powerful bloc given that the highest caucus turnout in history was 126,000 (in 1988).

The 50 State Strategy: Why it Can Work … If John Edwards is the Nominee
Nationwide general election polling shows John Edwards is the Democrat with the best chance of
defeating the Republican candidate in the 2008 general election for President. Edwards is the only Democrat with a significant lead in a head-to-head match-up against Republican frontrunner Giuliani.
Against the other three major Republican candidates, Edwards’ average margin of victory is identical to or better than that of Barack Obama, and significantly higher than Hillary Clinton’s average margin.
Edwards also outperforms the other Democratic candidates in match-ups with Republican candidates in key battleground states including Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. Further, unlike other Democrats who must “run the table” in states where Democrats have been competitive in recent elections, Edwards brings new states into play. This provides alternate scenarios – and a margin for error – when it comes to amassing 270 electoral votes.
Former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes has said, “We need a leader who can compete anywhere in America, and win. Some pundits say that a Democrat can’t win in some places in the South, Midwest or West. But they’re wrong. The right Democratic presidential nominee – one who shares our values, understands our issues and offers real and bold solutions – can win these states. That candidate is John Edwards.”
Earlier this year, Oklahoma State Senate President Pro Tempore Mike Morgan endorsed Edwards saying, “Numerous Oklahoma Democrats from both chambers agree that John Edwards is the strongest Presidential candidate in the field. He relates to our values and can communicate with the people of our state.”
• Nationwide head-to-head match-ups. General election polls show Edwards outperforming all
other Democrats against all Republicans. The following table summarizes nationwide general
election polling since Memorial Day, and shows the average margin for each Democrat for polls
in which they are included in horse race questions.

General Election Match-ups
Edwards Clinton Obama
Rudy Giuliani ..................... +4 (11 polls) +2 (35 polls) +2 (27 polls)
John McCain ..................... +6 (9 polls) +3 (18 polls) +6 (16 polls)
Mitt Romney ...................... +15 (8 polls) +10 (17 polls) +13 (11 polls)
Fred Thompson................. +11 (9 polls) +7 (25 polls) +10 (26 polls)

Global Strategy Group 4

• It is likely that national general election polls understate Edwards' general election advantage.
The reason for this is simple: Clinton runs further ahead of Republicans than Edwards in some of the large “blue” states any Democrat will carry (e.g., Massachusetts, New York, California).

“Big Blue State” General Election Match-Ups
John Edwards Hillary Clinton Barack Obama
New York*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards -1 Clinton +24 Obama +5
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +34 Clinton +40 Obama +28
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +22 Clinton +34 Obama +15
Massachusetts*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards +8 Clinton +25 Obama +5
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +25 Clinton +34 Obama +22
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +25 Clinton +29 Obama +17
California*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards +2 Clinton +20 Obama +4
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +31 Clinton +33 Obama +15
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +21 Clinton +26 Obama +16

SOURCE: Survey USA polling. Best Democrat in each category shown in BOLD.

• Battleground state match-ups. As was evident in 2000, the President is elected in the Electoral College, not in the national vote. Thus, it is even more important that – while still winning the solid “blue” states - Edwards outperforms other Democratic candidates in key battleground states, including Iowa, Missouri, and Ohio. Other Democrats must win in virtually every state where Democrats have been competitive in recent years. In contrast, Edwards brings new states into play, and introduces a margin for error when it comes to winning 270 electoral votes.

Battleground State General Election Match-Ups

John Edwards Hillary Clinton Barack Obama
Missouri*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards +5 Clinton -1 Obama +2
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +24 Clinton +11 Obama +11
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +10 Clinton +3 Obama +3
Iowa*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards +14 Clinton +8 Obama +8
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +16 Clinton +7 Obama +10
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +17 Clinton +6 Obama +10
Oregon*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards +3 Clinton +2 Tied
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +18 Clinton +13 Obama +18
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +15 Clinton +7 Obama +15
Ohio*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards – 1 Clinton -1 Obama -13
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +20 Clinton +10 Obama -1
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +9 Clinton +1 Obama -8
Oklahoma*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards +9 Clinton -3 Obama -21
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +21 Clinton +3 Obama -6
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +6 Clinton -6 Obama -20

Global Strategy Group 5
Battleground State General Election Match-Ups
John Edwards Hillary Clinton Barack Obama
Virginia*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards +5 Clinton +6 Obama +1
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +19 Clinton +15 Obama +12
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +10 Clinton +7 Obama -2
Kentucky*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards – 7 Clinton -10 Obama -18
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +10 Tied Obama -2
Fred Thompson............. Edwards +1 Clinton -5 Obama -7
Kansas*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards – 10 Clinton -12 Obama -11
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +14 Clinton +1 Obama +6
Fred Thompson............. Edwards – 7 Clinton -13 Obama -10
Alabama*
Rudy Giuliani ................. Edwards – 10 Clinton -11 Obama -27
Mitt Romney .................. Edwards +6 Clinton -1 Obama -17
Fred Thompson............. Edwards – 12 Clinton -13 Obama -26

SOURCE: Survey USA polling. Best Democrat in each category shown in BOLD.
Battleground Influence: ‘Electability’ Key
Iowa caucus goers are highly sophisticated and have a track record of assessing the electability of the candidates before making their decision. Additionally, caucus goers often do not choose a candidate until very close to the caucuses, making this a very late breaking process. A perfect example of this is 2004,
when in the last few weeks leading up to the caucuses, a large percentage of caucus goers abandoned
Howard Dean in favor of two candidates seen as more electable: John Edwards and John Kerry. With
less than 100 days until the caucuses, our campaign is in a strong position to take advantage of the large
number of undecided caucus goers, especially since caucus goers will be paying close attention to the
race when we go up on air.
In the 2008 caucuses, with a large share of caucus goers either still undecided or not firmly committed to
their choice, concerns about strength in the general election are likely to emerge as a major factor as
Iowans decide whom to support. This was a major strength for Edwards in 2004 and will help him in 2008
as well.
Iowa Polling: Edwards in Strong Position
The Iowa caucuses are inherently difficult to poll accurately, and while there is a wide range of public
polling available, the quality of that polling data also varies widely. Nevertheless, the polling consistently
shows that Edwards is in a strong position in Iowa, and that his support has proven to be deep and
durable.
Edwards’ support in public polling of Iowa caucus goers has averaged in the high 20’s since summer,
2006. An overview of sampling and survey findings reveals that Clinton benefits when the screen for the
poll is wider, while a tighter screen – that more closely reflects likely turnout – is to Edwards’ advantage.
Another way to gauge the screen’s selectivity is by looking at the percentage of first-time caucus goers in
the sample. As this percentage declines, Edwards’ support increases. Among those Iowans that will
most certainly attend the caucuses, Edwards is the clear frontrunner. In the Iowa caucuses, having the
most dedicated, experienced base of supporters will be critical to success.
Global Strategy Group 6
Edwards’ strength in Iowa is particularly notable given that his
campaign has yet to run a single television advertisement in the
state. (Notwithstanding the campaign’s small, $23,000 ad buy in
May that featured Iowans speaking out against the war but,
aside from the disclaimer, did not actually have Edwards in it).
In comparison, Obama and Clinton have each spent
considerable sums in the past months, for modest gains.
A strong finish by Edwards in Iowa will fundamentally change the
dynamic of the race, particularly because primary history
teaches us that voters generally decide on their presidential
nominee in a short window prior to the election. In the
2003/2004 primary election cycle, Howard Dean led John Kerry
by an average of 20 percentage points in New Hampshire before
Iowa caucus goers selected Kerry (38%) and Edwards (32%) as their top two candidates. After his
victory in Iowa, Kerry jumped to a 10 point lead in the New Hampshire polls, eventually winning the
primary by a 12 point margin.
Recent Iowa Caucus Polling – Twelve Poll Average
Conclusion
John Edwards’ 99 county, 50 state strategy is uniquely suited to him given his experience with the Iowa
caucuses and his status as the only candidate who has won an election in a “red” state. While the polls in
Iowa remain deadlocked, Edwards’ strategy of aggressively working to earn the support of Iowans in
every county and every part of the state puts him in a very strong position.
10%
20%
30%
June 26th: Obama ads begin
August 14th: Clinton ads begin
5/16/2007
7 5/20/2007 6 /16/2007 6/24/2007 7/31/2007
8/5/2007
8/19/2007 9/10/2007 9/27/2007
10/14/2007
Edwards
Clinton
Obama
Other
Undecided
TV Spending
Since June 26th
Edwards Clinton
$23,000 $2,100,000
Obama Richardson
$3,900,000 $2,000,000
Global Strategy Group 7
Citations and Links:
CNN/Opinion Research 927 Registered voters 10/14/2007
http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/10/16/schneider.poll/index.html
CNN/Opinion Research 914 Registered voters 9/9/2007
http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/09/11/rel9f.pdf
CNN/Opinion Research 1029 Registered voters 6/24/2007
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2007/06/25/poll-bloomberg-could-have-perot-like-effect/
Cook/RT Strategies 855 Registered voters 10/21/2007
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2007%20poll_tpline_oct21.pdf
Cook/RT Strategies 855 Registered voters 9/15/2007
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2007%20poll_tpline_sep7.pdf
Cook/RT Strategies 844 Registered voters 6/23/2007
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2007%20poll_tpline_jul6.pdf
Cook/RT Strategies 885 Registered voters 6/17/2007
http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2007%20poll_tpline_june17.pdf
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 900 Registered voters 10/10/2007
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/101707_2008_matchups_web.pdf
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 900 Registered voters 9/26/2007
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/092707_2008_Bush_release_web.pdf
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 900 Registered voters 7/18/2007
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/071907poll1.pdf
Fox News/Opinion Dynamics 900 Registered voters 6/6/2007
http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/060707_release_web.pdf
GWU-Battleground 1000 Likely voters 7/18/2007
http://www.tarrance.com/11363Qper.pdf
LA Times/Bloomberg 522 Registered voters 10/22/2007
http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/poll-547-release1-pdf,1,6122726.acrobat?coll=la-news-times_poll
LA Times/Bloomberg 512 Registered voters 10/22/2007
http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/poll-547-release1-pdf,1,6122726.acrobat?coll=la-news-times_poll
LA Times/Bloomberg 1056 Registered voters 6/10/2007
http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2007-06/30445335.pdf
LA Times/Bloomberg 1056 Registered voters 6/10/2007
http://www.latimes.com/media/acrobat/2007-06/30445335.pdf
NBC News/WSJ 1002 Adults 9/13/2007
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/wsj070912_sept07-poll.pdf
NBC News/WSJ 1005 Adults 7/30/2007
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/july2007pollv1.pdf
Global Strategy Group 8
NBC News/WSJ 1008 Adults 6/11/2007
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/0607-wsj-nbc-polldoc_6pm.rtf.pdf
NPR 800 Likely voters 10/7/2007
http://www.npr.org/programs/morning/features/2007/oct/nprpoll/questionnaire.pdf
Newsweek/PSRA 831 Adults 6/21/2007
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19373524/site/newsweek/
Quinnipiac 1545 Registered voters 8/13/2007
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1091
Quinnipiac 1711 Registered voters 6/11/2007
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1075
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 10/18/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_obama_vs_mccain_and_romney
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 10/16/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_obama_vs_giuliani_and_thompson
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 10/11/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_clinton_vs_mccain_romney
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 10/9/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_clinton_vs_giuliani_thompson
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 10/4/2007
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_edwards_vs_mccain_romney
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 10/2/2007
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_obama_vs_giuliani_and_thompson
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 9/27/2007
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_edwards_vs_giuliani_and_thompson
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 9/25/2007
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_clinton_vs_giuliani_thompson
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 9/20/2007
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_obama_vs_mccain_and_romney
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 9/18/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_obama_vs_giuliani_and_thompson
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 9/13/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/clinton_neck_and_neck_with_mccain_trumps_romney_by_nine
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 9/11/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/clinton_giuliani_remain_close_as_thompson_trails_clinton_by_five
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 9/4/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/giuliani_45_obama_44_obama_leads_thompson_by_four
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 8/30/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/edwards_leads_mccain_by_four
Global Strategy Group 9
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 8/28/2007
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/giuliani_47_clinton_44_clinton_48_thompson_44
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 8/23/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/edwards_now_leads_giuliani_by_eight_thompson_by_14
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 8/21/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_holds_on_to_slim_leads_over_giuliani_thompson
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 8/16/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/clinton_and_mccain_still_in_toss_up_clinton_leads_romney_by_11
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 8/14/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/in_surge_giuliani_now_tops_clinton_by_seven_points
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 8/9/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/edwards_now_in_toss_up_with_giuliani_lead_over_thompson_shrinks
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 8/7/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_obama_44_giuliani_43_obama_46_thompson_39
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 8/2/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mccain_regains_some_lost_ground_still_trails_clinton_and_obama
Rasmussen 839 Likely voters 7/31/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_clinton_virtually_tied_with_gop_frontrunners_giuliani_thompson
Rasmussen 643 Likely voters 7/26/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_edwards_leads_giuliani_by_seven_thompson_by_eleven
Rasmussen 1472 Likely voters 7/24/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_gains_ground_over_giuliani_thompson
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 7/19/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/edwards_struggles_in_democratic_nomination_race_but_does_well_in_general
_election_match_ups
Rasmussen 1029 Likely voters 7/17/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_obama_47_romney_38
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 7/10/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/clinton_44_giuliani_43
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 7/10/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mccain_falls_further_behind_clinton
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 6/28/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_clinton_thompson_tied
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 6/26/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/giuliani_and_thompson_gain_ground_on_edwards
Rasmussen 1200 Likely voters 6/24/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_in_tight_race_with_both_thompson_and_giuliani
Rasmussen 792 Likely voters 6/21/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mccain_falls_behind_clinton_giuliani_clinton_still_a_toss_up
Global Strategy Group 10
Rasmussen 1200 Likely voters 6/17/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_edwards_dominates_both_mccain_and_romney
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 6/14/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_obama_46_mccain_38
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 6/12/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/clinton_leads_romney_and_thompson
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 6/7/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008_edwards_holds_on_to_narrow_lead_over_giuliani
Rasmussen 800 Likely voters 6/5/2007
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/giuliani_regains_double_digit_lead_over_obama
USA Today/Gallup 918 Registered voters 7/15/2007
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=28198
USA Today/Gallup 927 Registered voters 6/14/2007
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/default.aspx?ci=28198&pg=2
USA Today/Gallup 905 Registered voters 6/3/2007
http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27850&pg=1
Washington Post/ABC News 1114 Adults 9/30/2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postpoll_100307.html
Zogby 1012 Likely voters 7/14/2007
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1338
SurveyUSA State-by-state polling:
Alabama 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=edb90764-b9f1-4ac6-a3fb-e68034d96b31
California 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=51824748-d0ce-42ab-ace9-f0f4602c6d3b
Iowa 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=275a3c34-9cad-41b4-a76e-78799cfa229d
Kansas 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=9d3ee4da-51ed-44dd-b9cf-5edf1ebe6044
Kentucky 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=c825abe5-de0b-4005-a1e4-6e4b4b475c69
Massachusetts 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=f542bc06-fbfb-4e39-818d-d94f16ec0cd8
Missouri 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=9a9fb4d3-3656-4193-8710-77c172996c1c
New York 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=a664ac38-9086-4716-ac4b-474af4d78468
Global Strategy Group 11
Ohio 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=21c6aad8-47f1-4a91-90a1-c2566551dc66
Oklahoma 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=5148f8f2-7339-4f15-aa04-8611f661d1a7
Oregon 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=da9dd1cb-83c8-4f16-9db7-c30cc60aed74
Virginia 500* Registered voters 9/16/2007
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=3884ab12-ca1b-4fcf-aa6f-02a1f182e95d
*SurveyUSA respondent totals vary by matchup within each state poll, but average approximately 500 interviews.

D's and R's to Share the Night

Cut those holiday plans a little short. Iowa Democrats and Republicans will caucus the same night after all. At 2pm Thursday afternoon, the Iowa Democratic Party will notify its 50 or so members of the state central committee to be close to their phones Sunday night.

That's when State Party Chair Scott Brennan will hold a statewide conference call at 8pm to say he wants the caucuses to move up to January third, instead of the previously scheduled (very loosely scheduled) January 14th. I'm not sure I can tell you a single Democrat who thought Dems would stick to their original date.

The move lets the Dems caucus with the Repubs, something that oughta make all of our out-of-state friends' bosses happy. They won't be spending nearly as much dough on hotel rooms, meals, etc., in Des Moines. They can save their coin for an earlier, longer stop in New Hampshire. This is good news for Iowans who can now likely find tables at Centro and 801 Steak and Chop House.

As long as New Hampshire's Sec of State doesn't crazy, this should keep Iowa first in this complicated, ever-changing Presidential picking process. It's sounding like New Hampshire would move up to January 8th and leave it there. Let's hope that's the case and no one decides to hold seemingly meaningless 2008 contests in 2007.

One thing we learned through this is that former Secretary of State-turned-Governor Chet Culver may now better understand how this all works. At a news conference two months or so back, Culver told us he'd consider calling back the Iowa Legislature to change state law that says Iowa has to caucus eight days before the next state. Apparently, that isn't quite correct. It's up the state parties to decide when we caucus. And the parties have now decided we all caucus a little sooner next year.

No Mo Joe

Tony LaRussa's coming back to my beloved St. Louis Cardinals. So end the Joe Torre-back-to-the-Cards-LaRussa-to-the-Yankees-talk. The Cards fired Torre as manager in 1995. LaRussa took over. Torre went to the Yankees. The rest is history.

Rudy Giuliani told me during his recent stop here that if Torre didn't go back to the Yankees, he would only manage in St. Louis. Looks like neither thing will happen now.

Walker, Arkansas Ranger

Chuck Norris likes Mike Huckabee. The internet tells me Chuck Norris kills people. Hopefully, Chuck Norris won't kill Mike Huckabee. Today, Huckabee's camp proudly announced Norris' endorsement.

Don't know much about Chuck Norris? You should. Or he'll kill you. I found out this from www.chucknorrisfacts.com:

Guns don't kill people. Chuck Norris kills People.

There is no theory of evolution. Just a list of animals Chuck Norris allows to live.

Chuck Norris does not sleep. He waits.

The chief export of Chuck Norris is Pain.

There is no chin under Chuck Norris' Beard. There is only another fist.

Chuck Norris has two speeds. Walk, and Kill.

The leading causes of death in the United States are: 1. Heart Disease 2. Chuck Norris 3. Cancer

Chuck Norris drives an ice cream truck covered in human skulls.

Chuck Norris is my Homeboy.

Chuck Norris doesn't go hunting.... CHUCK NORRIS GOES KILLING

And Then There Was This...

Biden: Unlike Richardson, "I Don't Just Pull It Out"

My IowaVotes' colleague, Jarrett Schneider, sat in on this Friday a.m. in Des Moines. (btw, thanks to him for blogging here while I was surrounding myself with pineapples on my Hawaii honeymoon).

October 19, 2007 -- Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden called out fellow Democratic presidential contender Gov. Bill Richardson several times by name during a coffeehouse visit with Democrats in Des Moines Friday morning.

Responding to an audience member's question about soldiers of the Iowa National Guard's 1st, 133rd being denied education benefits under the G.I. Bill, Sen. Biden -- in a single statement -- leveled criticism towards both the Bush administration and Gov. Richardson.

"It's a look into the window of how this administration has mistreated our soldiers - mistreated our veterans," Biden said. "I don't say that lightly. I'm no Bill Richardson. I don't just pull it out - I always kid Bill about that."

Later in the same question-and-answer session, a woman asked the Delaware Senator why he doesn't differentiate himself more from the other Democratic candidates. Biden started his response by saying he was not comfortable doing so, but then said he didn't have a problem pointing out differences with Richardson, who, "we've seen flip on a number of issues". Biden went on to say Richardson originally was in favor of Biden's Iraq plan, but then changed his position.

But Biden ended his response where it started, "I'm just not comfortable with it."

By Jarrett Schneider

Goodbye, Yellow Brick Road

"My family and I are taking the first steps on the yellow brick road to the White House."
--January 20, 2007

“My yellow brick road came just short of the White House this time.”

--October 19, 2007



So long, Sam. Republicans had wondered aloud for a while now how long Sam Brownback could stay in the race. His exit from the prez race made me think back to the Iowa Republican Straw Poll in Ames last August. Brownback's campaign seemed to go all out to do well in the event. Brownback went negative against Romney for probably a good month before the event. He spent almost as much money as Romney to get one of the prime spots near the voting site. He even brought in barbecue like Romney.


Late that afternoon, I walked around outside Hilton Coliseum. Frankly, I didn't have much to do at the time. Most people who were going to vote had already done so (not nearly as many as State Republicans would have liked). Tommy Thompson's place had already cleared out to head back to the land of beer and cheese (or is it, beer and sausage? or cheese and sausage?)


Brownback's people were sitting in a row outside his tent still working the phones, trying to get people to show up and vote. I remember thinking Brownback would likely to well compared to the others. It just seemed like he had a pretty decent crowd compared to Tancredo, McCain, Fred Thompson. But his staffers didn't seem to be all that enthusiastic.


And when the numbers came in, it seemed like reality had set in. Later, the camp tried to spin it like he had done well. But it didn't seem like the staff really believed that. It took two months before Brownback came back to the state. And when he did, he did that dual-event with Democrat Joe Biden.


Perhaps, the writing was already on the wall. Perhaps, there just weren't enough yellow bricks for this long road to the White House after all.

Dick Cheney and Barack Obama Related...What?

This afternoon, Lynne Cheney, wife of Vice President Dick Cheney, made an appearance on MSNBC to promote her new book. Her interview didn't make much news until she dropped this to MSNBC anchor Norah Jones when asked about the Democratic candidates:

"One of the things I discovered [when researching for the book] is that Dick and Barack Obama are eighth cousins... Isn't that an amazing thing?"

Below is a link to the video... Fast forward to about '7:57' to hear Mrs. Cheney discuss her genealogical findings.



Lynne Cheney on new book, husband

UPDATE: A bit more web browsing comes across this Sept. article from the Chicago Sun-Times discussing Obama's relation to BOTH President Bush and V.P. Dick Cheney. Does this mean Obama has the Presidency in his blood? Hmm...

Hey, Look! Your Moc's Untied!

Unless you're partial to wearing Velcro New Balances, everyone's had their shoelaces come undone at some inopportune time. But if your knot comes free on your kickers and you're a presidential candidate delivering a major financial policy proposal before a large crowd, it can make for an awkward moment. Here's what I'm talking about (video courtesy of NBC's Carrie Dann)...



Clinton said she picked up her comfy moccasins from a shop in Fort Dodge. M.E. Sprengelmeyer of Rocky Mountain News has a close-up of her chic slip-ons.

We're Playin' Hardball

David Yepsen was in the studio this afternoon for a live appearance on MSNBC’s Hardball with Chris Matthews… Here’s what the Register columnist had to say on polling numbers, the caucuses, and the candidates.

On latest poll numbers:

“The polls in Iowa are very different from the national polls. As David Schuster mentioned in that setup piece of his, the polls in Iowa are showing this thing a statistical tie. Newsweek’s poll has Barack Obama up by two points. Now, that’s all margin of error stuff but you can ask Howard Dean what a big lead in the polls means right now if you lose Iowa. It tends to evaporate everything else down the road in New Hampshire.”

Q: Will the Iowa caucuses still have that power, that punch to help the winner and hurt the loser?

“I think so Chris, and I think so because of this business of these other states moving up their contests. Everybody hates Iowa and New Hampshire so their solution is to move their contests closer to IA and N.H. which just makes IA and N.H. that much more important. A winner gets the ball rolling here. A challenger has to slow the front runner down the end result is everybody pours it on out there. That phenomenon is happening in both parties – particularly on the democratic side – where you do have this three-way race among three candidates.”

“And right now I think Barack Obama has got a better organization in this state than Hillary Clinton does. He’s got more field offices. He’s spending more time in small towns in Iowa. Sen. Clinton knows this that’s why she’s planning a trip out here to get into some of these small towns were there are a lot of delegates to be had. So the predictive value of these national polls in Iowa is pretty limited.”


Q: Do you see anyone out there running who is going to take this country of our’s to a different place if they get elected?

“Not yet, Chris, but I think Barack Obama has the best potential for doing that. You can see that in some of the crowds he attracts – new people, young people – they’re interested in what he represents. A fresh face. A change. So I think he’s got the potential for that. He’s not been doing such good work on the stump. So he needs to sharpen that message and do better in these debates. I think if he does that he can start accomplishing what you’re talking about.”

Q: If Hillary sits on her lead and doesn’t say anything and simply has a smart operation – smug and smart – can she get blown away here?

“Yes, she can, Chris. I mean I think there’s some evidence that that could happen. They’re not a very nimble campaign. It reminds me of Ronald Reagan in 1980 when he thought he could bypass Iowa and wound up firing John Sears in New Hampshire. Or Al Gore when he had to strip down his campaign in 2000 and move it to Nashville. The Clinton campaign is very, sort of top heavy and sluggish. It’s bureaucratic. She’s got to get rid of some of that. Get out from underneath that bubble. Allow some media people a chance to interview her. Get into the small towns of Iowa and do some retail.”

Matthews: She went on the Sunday talk shows – all five of them – made no news in five appearances. It was a tour de force if her goal is to say nothing. David?

“Well I think she’s got to start fleshing some of this stuff out. She’s done a good job in some of these debates. I mean one reason she has taken off in national polls is she’s had some good performances in some of these debates. So I think, you know, let Hillary be Hillary. Let her get out there. Quit trying to treat her like an incumbent. She engages well. I think it’s one of the reasons she’s come up in Iowa. I mean, six months ago when we looked at these polls, she was back in second and third place. Now she’s very competitive. I just think they need to get closer to the ground with her and get her out of that shell. Get her out of that bubble and let people see her because she could become the instrument of change. She’s a women in this campaign with serious chance to become President and that has a lot of appeal to women and last time I checked the majority of caucus goers are women.”

Q: Wondering if he’ll [Giuliani] will benefit from Hillary’s ascendancy?

“You know, I don’t think so. I think he’s running a pretty poor campaign out here, not doing what he should. He’s flying all over the country. It’s like he’s already moved to the general election strategy. And out here he’s got to get by Mitt Romney…Well, first thing’s first.”

An Obama Anniversary

A little blogging from the Obama event here in the Polk Co. Complex (aka the Plex). The event comes on the fifth anniversary of Obama's anti-Iraq war speech in Chicago.

It's a little after 4 o'clock (event slated to start now. I guess Obama comes later) and we're getting a little time-filler "Iowa Caucus Trivia" courtesy of Polk Co. Assessor Jim Maloney as we wait for Obama to arrive... "When are the caucuses?" he asks the crowd. Someone yells "Jan. 14." Maloney quips his response, "to be determined."

A few others take the stage to sing their support for the Illinois senator.

"Are Ya Fired Up!? Ready To Go?!" The crowd responds somewhat in unison "Fired up, Ready to Go!"... "Sen. Obama will be out in several minutes."

Tina Turner's "Simply The Best" is now pumping through the speakers.



Enter Ted Sorenson, former adviser and speechwriter for President John F. Kennedy.

Sorenson says Obama is "the only serious candidate for the democratic nomination for the President of the United States who five years ago was the first and the only presidential candidate to oppose the single worst blunder in the history of American foreign policy: the needless, endless occupation in Iraq."

Sorenson is now reminiscing back to JFK and the Cold War... a time when "Kennedy believed in negotiation."

Sorenson is making connections between JFK and Obama... "we don't even need to go into the fact that there were those who said Kennedy had lost his chance to be President the day he was baptized, like they say Obama lost the day he was born black."

"Those that say Kennedy was too inexperienced, too young."

"The next president of the United States, Barack Obama."

Enter Obama.

Thank-yous for Sorenson and campaign staffers... Thank-yous to Co-Chairs IA Attny. Gen. Tom Miller and State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald. (Both were some of Obama's earliest Iowa endorsers).

Sign-up to volunteer, Obama pitches to the audience.

Obama now getting into the war on Iraq by telling a story about redeployed soldiers.

"Hard truth is the war in Iraq is not about a catalogue of many mistakes it's about one big mistake," says Obama. "The war in Iraq should have never been fought." (Long applause).

Obama discussing his anti-war speech from five years ago today. "Some told me to keep quiet. To wait longer. Going to war was popular."

"I didn't see how Saddam Hussein posed an imminent threat."

"Let's be clear: without that vote there would be no war."

"We need to ask those voted for the war, how can you expect to give the President a blank check and not expect him to cash it?"

Obama says "conventional thinking" in Washington needs to be challenged.

"I'm running to change this country."

"Who got it write and who got it wrong?"

"This is not just a matter of debating the past or 'I told ya so.' It's about making a determination who's got the best judgement to make the critical decisions going into the future."

"No matter what we think about George Bush he will be gone in 2009."

"We're not going to unify a divided America by playing conventional politics."

"This election is a turning point... are we going to turn back the clock or are we going to turn the page?"

"I want to be straight with you. If you want someone with conventional Washington thinking, I'm not your man. If you want rigid ideology, I'm not your man. If you think fundamental change can wait, then I am definitely not your man..."

"... but if you want to bring this country together... If you want experience broader than just learning the ways of Washington..."

"I offer a different choice in this race... A different vision for our future. First thing we have to do is end this war and the right person to end it is someone who had the judgement to oppose it from the beginning.' (applause).

"Not military solution in Iraq and there never was." Barack says he will remove troops immediately: 1-2 brigades per month and get all "combat" troops out within 16 months."

Obama says he will leave some troops to "perform limited ordinary missions of protecting our diplomats" and to "carry out targeted strikes on al-Qaida."

"Let there be no doubt, I will end this war."

Obama says we can't win if we "outsource critical missions to unaccountable contractors like we've been reading about over the last several weeks."

"Let there be no mistake. We must always be prepared to use force to protect America."

"All nations friend and foe. It's time to turn the page..."

"Time to offer a message of hope instead of a message of hate."

"To lead... must lead by example."

"When I'm President, I will close Gitmo." (loud cheer).

"The American people are not the problem, they are the answer."

"I will always tell you what I think. I will always tell you were I stand. I will always tell you the truth and it's what I'll do as the President of the U.S. of America."

"Time to unite America."

"I'm not a perfect man and I will not be a perfect President."

"I would not have been here if the torch -- as Tom suggested -- had not been passed by the new generation."

Done.

Applauding Fred

It's great to say, "I saw a first today." Today, I did. Fred Thompson had just finished his stump speech at "Tremont on Main", a restaurant in downtown Marshalltown. Yes, it's on Main Street. No one in the crowd of about 60 was clapping (well, what was left of the crowd. About 10 or so of them had taken off already.) So Thompson took matters in his own hands. I've never heard a presidential candidate do this. But after hearing the silence, Thompson said to the crowd, "First of all, could I have a round of applause?" Polite applause then followed. He thanked them and added he "had to drag it" out of them.



If Thompson becomes President next year, I need to think back about Orland Jeons (it's pronounced like "Jones". He told me it's the traditional German spelling). Mr. Jeons lives in Marshalltown after moving from Manning to be closer to his daughter who owns the restaurant where today he listed to Thompson speak.

Mr. Jeons wants to vote republican. Although, these days, he's considering himself more of an independent. He voted for Bush. Twice. He was o.k. with the first term. He's far from o.k. with the second term. So now he's concerned with electing someone who can help the image of the U.S., an image he believes that has been badly tarnished because of Bush's decisions. Mostly the war. He agrees we should have gone to war. He doesn't think we've done it the right way or handled it the right way. Mr. Jeons first decided John McCain was his man this time around. But he says when McCain started "going downhill", he moved on to Mitt Romney. Now, he's rooting for Thompson. He likes what he's seen from Thompson, the actor. He liked his image. Now, he's hoping Thompson can use that tough, good decision-making image to repair the image of the U.S.

Mr. Jeons says he thinks he's like a lot of his republican friends. They keep changing their minds as they search for the "right" candidate. But then he ended by saying, they would pick the best one, even though he will "just get defeated." Republicans may have an optimism problem, don't you think?

Fred, Fried Chicken and a Lie Pie for dessert

Fred Thompson hasn't been to Iowa much during this presidential campaign. Let's face it, he hasn't been a candidate for all that long. So tonight, when he's supposed to work the room before about 850 Iowans of faith, it piqued our interest. Thompson is a guy who's been married...twice. He's admitted he doesn't usually go to church. And he's refused to back that federal amendment to ban gay marriage. So obviously, when he decided to go to the annual banquet of the Iowa Christian Alliance, we were curious.

Thompson arrived at 5pm. The cameras followed him around the room while he introduced his wife and their daughter. (one humorous moment...when one older man, perhaps, about Thompson's age--he's 65--met Thompson's wife, Jeri--she turns 41 on Sunday--he listened as Jeri said, "I'm his wife, Jeri." That's when the older man said, "really?" I digress...

Anyway, the Thompsons sat down at a table while they listened to a man sing "God Bless the USA" (the singer seemed to be about a second behind the music, but, again, I digress."

A Thompson staffer pulled me aside to say Thompson would take questions outside the building later, so he wouldn't disturb the dinner guests inside. So we waited...about an hour, while Thompson stood in the receiving line and shook people's hands as they waited to get their plates of fried chicken, really thick mashed potatoes and green beans. Then it looked like it was our chance. Thompson made his way to the door...the bathroom door. Oops. We all followed, well all the way to the bathroom.

Then, we followed him after he left the bathroom. Perhaps, this was our chance. Nope, he made his way back to his table. Then, he turned around and went outside. Now, it was our chance to get all those faith questions answered. Thompson walked outside...and then walked into the SUV waiting for him. Then, he left. Another staffer said there would be plenty of time for questions during the rest of the trip. Will there or is that another slice of lie pie?

Hillary's Health

We're just waiting for Hillary Clinton to show up here at what's supposed to be the unveiling of her health care plan at Broadlawn's in Des Moines. The room is packed, not just from the people. It's stuffy. Stuffed and stuffy, actually. The campaign has wall-sized backdrops, surely for the benefit of the tv cameras.

The Senator is late arriving. She almost always is. Although she is coming from Chicago. She left Senator Tom Harkin's Steak Fry nearby in Indianola late yesterday to fly to Chicago last night. Then she flies back to Des Moines. Such is the life of a major candidate. They don't want to waste time. Well, they don't want to waste the candidate's time.

While I'm waiting, some final thoughts on the Steak Fry. Obama, Edwards and Clinton clearly had a huge numbers advantage. They had way more supporters down in front of the stage. Obama's camp claims 3,000. I haven't heard numbers from others.

When Clinton finished speaking, hundreds, if not more, of her people moved out from in front. Same thing when Obama and Edwards finished. Richardson followed Obama. Dodd followed Clinton. Biden followed Edwards. I wonder what was going through their minds as they watched so many people leave as they got ready to speak? How can that not be deflating this late in the campaign?

Final Fry Thoughts

This is Jarrett again – Dave’s partner in Iowa caucus crime.

Just a few final thoughts on today’s political beef feast…

As the event was wrapping up it was announced a record attendance of about 12,000 had been set. A quick glance over a thank-you message posted on the host’s website, TomHarkin.com, reads, “more than 18,000 people gathered at the Indianola balloon field.” If that total from Harkin’s website is correct, the population of Indianola (about 13,000) was easily doubled this afternoon. (We’ll have to check on that one tomorrow). I’m sure those inching along in their cars outside Indianola would surely believe it after they found themselves only covering a few miles over the span of a half hour on their way to today’s hillside BBQ.

Of course aside from presidential politics, food was a definite focus today – and I should have eaten some. Running on a biscuit and a large iced coffee from nine in the morning clearly didn’t suffice as I found myself drained mid-afternoon just as the crowd began its exodus and the final candidate (Sen. Joe Biden) took the stage. Dave, on the other hand, took advantage of the “media rate steak” over the noon hour. He usually eats afterwards. Here’s his culinary review from an earlier post:

“The steak was o.k., I guess. You can’t expect too much more when they have to prepare thousands of them. I’ll still take my Dad’s.”

Now back to Biden. It’s unfortunate for the senior senator that he drew the short straw on the speaking order. There were two noticeable crowd-thinning occasions. The first came after Hillary Clinton spoke and the other when John Edwards (who was second to last) concluded. Batting cleanup, Biden said, “I apologize that I’m the last speaker you have to hear and for being as serious as I’m about to be.” Biden went on to briefly touch on just a few issues and focused on his plan in Iraq which involves dissolving its central government and splitting the country into three separate self-governing regions.

Finally, Sen. Hillary Clinton was sure to put in a plug during her speech for tomorrow’s “major” policy announcement where she is expected to unveil a detailed plan for universal health care.

More on that tomorrow.

Steak Fry Speeches, Part 2

Enter Edwards.

Edwards talking about that all-too-familiar theme -- change.

"We need universal heath care."

Edwards talking about standing up to lobbyists.

"Don't believe you can bring about change... without standing up to them."

Edwards discussing the health care story about James...

"When are we ever going to stand up to the health care companies and their lobbyists in Washington?"

"Lord knows we need a democrat in the White House."

"90-100 billion dollars a year" to pay for universal health care under Edwards plan, he says.

"It ain't cheap."

Edwards now talking about alternative energy... "It's time to be patriotic about something other than war. It is time -- time for us to sacrifice."

"We need YOU to bring about change."

Onto economic issues... Minimum wage must be at least $9/hr.

Make it easier to join a union and be able to walk the picket line without having fear of losing your job.

"Need to set a timetable. No timetable. No funding"

Now Edwards is quieting the crowd...

"You're going to be able to look us in the eye and trust us. We desperately need to restore trust in the presidency."

"When you make that decision do one thing: trust your heart."

"God bless you all... Let's make this a historic year for America."


Enter Biden.

Thank-yous... "No matter who you're for you're always gracious."

"I apologize... I'm the last speaker you have to hear."

(Lots of people are heading out of the balloon field -- dinner plans already?)

Biden hitting on the Iraq situation and being critical of President Bush.

"How many more deaths?"

"I have a plan." Start bringing troops home. Iraq is incapable of having a central government... Need three regions.

"We better tell the truth."

"We share common goals (issues): universal health care, education, energy security, global warming."

"Public funding can end this obscene amount of money being spent (on elections)."

"God bless America and God bless our troops."


Exit Biden.

Enter Harkin for ending thank-yous.

So long for now...

"Ready to Kick Some Elephant"

Today's steak fry host and Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin just took the stage and gave a full round of thank-yous... "We're ready to kick some elephant!" said Harkin to a loud roar from the crowd.

Harkin says that the only way of getting out of Iraq is to elect a democratic president. Harkin briefly touched on a few other issues.

"Now let's hear from the next president of the United States," Harkin said (This statement may have been confused as an endorsement for speaker number one, Barack Obama? Harkin said the speaking order had been drawn out of a hat.

Enter Obama.

"The American people are not the problem, the American people are the answer."

Barack is discussing the Constitution now and hitting on economics and, of course, the war...

"Change in America is going to begin when we get Bush and Cheney out of office."

Obama says we've been spending decades discussing issues like universal heath care and independence on foreign oil, but now we need to have "fundamental change."

Obama is now talking about having "common experience" and saying he had confidence to stand up against the war when he knew it was wrong.

He says he'll bring "change." (A theme common to several campaigns).

[Some technical problems here in the press room. Sorry for the break]

Enter Richardson

[Back online. Jumping into speech mid-way]

Reduce green house gases...

"Al Gore was right, we just hope he doesn't get into the race," said Richardson.

I'll have a Teacher as Sec. of Ed.; Union member as Sec. of Labor.

"I want to earn your vote."

"Are you ready to take your country back?!"


Enter Clinton.

"Good afternoon Iowa!"

Clinton is recollecting a movie with "glorious corn fields" -- "If you build it they will come!"
(I need not remind all of you what movie this is.)

Clinton is going over a list of issues: Iraq, health care, ... "Are you ready for change?" Clinton said. (Change, where did we hear that? Hmm.)

"We've got to get back to diplomacy," Clinton says.

Clinton is now getting back to health care - specifically veterans... "How have we come to the point that even our veterans are becoming invisible?" (Those 'invisibles' - a common Clinton theme.)

"Three things we have to do: get costs down, quality up, and cover every single person."

She's now teasing her press conference on Monday where her campaign says she will make a "major" policy announcement in regards to health care.

Clinton is reminiscing about her work on health care for children.

Clinton's asking people to support the campaign, to endorse her, and "restore America's greatness."

"I know we can do this together and I'm ready to lead!"

Clinton exits to loud "Hillary" cheers.


Enter Dodd.

"You are showing great patience in Iowa."

Dodd is ALSO referencing that famous Iowa baseball movie starring that Dancing With Wolves actor (oh, what's his name?).

"Is this heaven, no it's Iowa!"

Dodd is now name-dropping. A few: Former Iowa Senator John Culver, Congressmen Berkley Bedell and Mike Blouin; current Congressmen Dave Loebsack and Bruce Braley; and also, of course, steak fry host Sen. Tom Harkin.

Dodd is reciting the things he worked on with Harkin in the Senate. "Thank you Iowa for giving us Tom Harkin!"

Dodd is recollecting his lunch menu from last month's state fair. "I had no idea there was a fried twinkie and a fried oreo..."

Now getting serious again.

"I'm angry about what has happened over the last six years."

Dodd is citing his service in the peace corps 40 years ago.

"I'm standing before you today in Iowa as a presidential candidate because I want my country to have a better future."

Dodd is joking about his age (he's 63) and the fact that he has a daughter who's age is in the single digits... His AARP and diapers joke.

"The answers to these issues will not just take one person. It will take the entire party."

Dodd touting his work passing the Family Medical Leave Act.

"Very first thing I'll do is restore the Constitution of the United States."

Dodd says the first thing a president should do is to "keep us safe."

Dodd says we need the leadership in the country like there was during the JFK era.

"We have great democratic candidates but we need to work together as a democratic party."

After the Inauguration, "All 12,000 of you are invited to spend the night in the White House."


Posting... Be back.

Steaking a Spot

I don't know if the weather could be better. It's about 75 and sunny here at Tom Harkin's Steak Fry in Indianola. So much better than four years ago during the monsoon. That was the last time we had a full slate of prez candidates. Bill Clinton also came. It rained like crazy that day. People were falling down the muddy hillside. When Clinton came out to speak, the rain stopped. And the sun came out. Or maybe that was a movie I saw.

I just about got run over by Obama's throng of supporters following him in. The campaign is claiming about 3,000 followers. Harkin's people are hoping for 8 to 10,000 overall. Quite a percentage. John Edwards' airplane just flew over. Well, it's not his plane. But it's a plane pulling a banner with his name. I wonder what that costs? I wonder how many people are looking at the skies?

I ate for the first time here. Usually I wait til afterwards. The steak was o.k., I guess. You can't expect too much more when they have to prepare thousands of them. I'll still take my Dad's.

I wonder what Dennis Kucinich would eat here at the Steak Fry? He wasn't invited. And apparently isn't happy about it. I don't remember the last time he actually campaigned here.

No Surrender, McCain Apologizes, Gets Help with BBQ Bills

Never Surrender

It's a good thing it wasn't hot outside. John McCain's "No surrender" bus pulled in at 1:21pm by my watch. His event at the AmVets 2 Post in Des Moines was supposed to start at noon. McCain blamed the bus driver's wrong turns for the delay. In fact, I counted at least four apologies from him by the end of his appearance. I don't recall rival, Rudy Giuliani, ever saying he was sorry for making people wait at least an hour for what I think was his first visit to Des Moines as an official candidate for prez.

McCain seemed to make a bit of news during his stop. He promised he would catch Osama bin Laden, unlike President Bush, although he wouldn't say how he would do it. He said he doesn't want bin Laden to know his plans. That's why he said he can't say how he would catch him. He also called on the dems to denounce that "General Betray Us" ad by http://www.moveon.org/. I haven't seen statements from any dems so far on this.

McCain's money problems have been well-documented over this campaign. We stumbled upon some help for him. A Vietnam War veteran, Lee Booton of Ankeny, manned the barbecue outside AmVets Post 2.

Lee told me the vets got together to donate their time and 260 pounds of chicken, 5 gallons of cole slaw, 8 gallons of potato salad and 4 gallons of beans. He said they did it all for less than $200 and fed nearly 250 people. Why? Lee told me, "He (McCain) is the guy who knows more than anyone else in there. I trust him because of his knowledge of what he's gone through. I mean, you spend six years as a P.O.W. See how you like it." He added, "See that (the flag of the U.S. Navy) flag? Navy brothers stick together."

Op-Edin' for a Better Seat

Bill Richardson's been looking for a better seat at the table. He's 4th in most of the Iowa polls I've seen. He's looking to knock off at least 1 of the 3 dems above him on Caucus night. And unlike the 3 above him (except for Edwards sometimes), he's getting a little "specifically aggressive". He's going after other candidates. But unlike what Clinton and Obama seem to do, Richardson is criticizing/comparing/challenging the others by actually saying their names, instead of making the media try to figure out which opponents they mean.

Here's his op-ed piece in today's Washington Post

Why We Should Exit Iraq Now

By Bill Richardson

Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards have suggested that there is little difference among us on Iraq. This is not true: I am the only leading Democratic candidate committed to getting all our troops out and doing so quickly.

In the most recent debate, I asked the other candidates how many troops they would leave in Iraq and for what purposes. I got no answers. The American people need answers. If we elect a president who thinks that troops should stay in Iraq for years, they will stay for years -- a tragic mistake.

Clinton, Obama and Edwards reflect the inside-the-Beltway thinking that a complete withdrawal of all American forces somehow would be "irresponsible." On the contrary, the facts suggest that a rapid, complete withdrawal -- not a drawn-out, Vietnam-like process -- would be the most responsible and effective course of action.

Those who think we need to keep troops in Iraq misunderstand the Middle East. I have met and negotiated successfully with many regional leaders, including Saddam Hussein. I am convinced that only a complete withdrawal can sufficiently shift the politics of Iraq and its neighbors to break the deadlock that has been killing so many people for so long.

Our troops have done everything they were asked to do with courage and professionalism, but they cannot win someone else's civil war. So long as American troops are in Iraq, reconciliation among Iraqi factions is postponed. Leaving forces there enables the Iraqis to delay taking the necessary steps to end the violence. And it prevents us from using diplomacy to bring in other nations to help stabilize and rebuild the country.

The presence of American forces in Iraq weakens us in the war against al-Qaeda. It endows the anti-American propaganda of those who portray us as occupiers plundering Iraq's oil and repressing Muslims. The day we leave, this myth collapses, and the Iraqis will drive foreign jihadists out of their country. Our departure would also enable us to focus on defeating the terrorists who attacked us on Sept. 11, those headquartered along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border -- not in Iraq.

Logistically, it would be possible to withdraw in six to eight months. We moved as many as 240,000 troops into and out of Iraq through Kuwait in as little as a three-month period during major troop rotations. After the Persian Gulf War, we redeployed nearly a half-million troops in a few months. We could redeploy even faster if we negotiated with the Turks to open a second route out through Turkey.

As our withdrawal begins, we will gain diplomatic leverage. Iraqis will start seeing us as brokers, not occupiers. Iraq's neighbors will face the reality that if they don't help with stabilization, they will face the consequences of Iraq's collapse -- including even greater refugee flows over their borders and possible war.

The United States can facilitate Iraqi reconciliation and regional cooperation by holding a conference similar to that which brought peace to Bosnia. We will need regional security negotiations among all of Iraq's neighbors and discussions of donations from wealthy nations -- including oil-rich Muslim countries -- to help rebuild Iraq. None of this can happen until we remove the biggest obstacle to diplomacy: the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq.

My plan is realistic because:

It is less risky. Leaving forces behind leaves them vulnerable. Would we need another surge to protect them?

It gets our troops out of the quagmire and strengthens us for our real challenges. It is foolish to think that 20,000 to 75,000 troops could bring peace to Iraq when 160,000 have not. We need to get our troops out of the crossfire in Iraq so that we can defeat the terrorists who attacked us on Sept. 11.

By hastening the peace process, the likelihood of prolonged bloodshed is reduced. President Richard Nixon withdrew U.S. forces slowly from Vietnam -- with disastrous consequences. Over the seven years it took to get our troops out, 21,000 more Americans and perhaps a million Vietnamese, mostly civilians, died. All this death and destruction accomplished nothing -- the communists took over as soon as we left.

My position has been clear since I entered this race: Remove all the troops and launch energetic diplomatic efforts in Iraq and internationally to bring stability. If Congress fails to end this war, I will remove all troops without delay, and without hesitation, beginning on my first day in office.

Let's stop pretending that all Democratic plans are similar. The American people deserve precise answers from anyone who would be commander in chief. How many troops would you leave in Iraq? For how long? To do what, exactly? And the media should be asking these questions of the candidates, rather than allowing them to continue saying, "We are against the war . . . but please don't read the small print."

Clinton Overpowering Fair Turbine

I thought it sounded wrong, but I wasn't quite sure at first...

Looking for Pledges

DNC Chair Howard Dean and the Iowa/New Hampshire/Nevada/South Carolina Dem Parties offered up a pledge today to try to end this jumping around craziness of "who goes when" in the prez nominating process. Here's the pledge:

As of 4:48pm, three candidates have signed on (Richardson, Biden and Dodd)...still waiting on the top three ranked candidates to weigh in... Will they?


Four State Pledge Letter 2008
Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina
August 31, 2007

WHEREAS, Over a year ago, the Democratic National Committee established a 2008 nominating calendar;

WHEREAS, this calendar honors the racial, ethnic, economic and geographic diversity of our party and our country;

WHEREAS, the DNC also honored the traditional role of retail politics early in the nominating process, to insure that money alone will not determine our presidential nominee;

WHEREAS, it is the desire of Presidential campaigns, the DNC, the states and the American people to bring finality, predictability and common sense to the nominating calendar.

THEREFORE, I _______________, Democratic Candidate for President, pledge I shall not campaign or participate in any state which schedules a presidential election primary or caucus before Feb. 5, 2008, except for the states of Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire and South Carolina, as “campaigning” is defined by rules and regulations of the DNC.


___________________________ __________
John/Jane Doe, Doe for President DATE

Don't Blow Your Smoke On Huckabee

Mike Huckabee is apparently no fan of the smoke.

No Ames after All

So much for the big scoop on Hillary Clinton laboring in Ames next Monday. I posted yesterday how her campaign had asked the Ames City Council to block off a portion of downtown so Clinton could hold an event for approximately 1,000 people.

The campaign today sent out an early advisory that Clinton and her hubby will be going to Des Moines (and Sioux City). No official word yet on why Des Moines and not Ames.

But an employee in the Ames City Clerk's office filled us in. She said Hillary Clinton’s campaign submitted its the original request last Thursday. She said it was "a late request" for such an event involving a road closure of Main Street. However, the city manager’s recommendation was to approve the request on the basis that it will “create positive energy and promote downtown businesses”.

The clerk’s office says that a Clinton campaign worker called late yesterday (4:00 p.m.) – an hour or so before the city council meeting was to convene – that there was a change of plans and the event was not going to occur.

Clinton Laboring on Labor Day

Looks like Hillary Clinton is planning on laboring on Labor Day. We found this on the Ames City Council's agenda for tonight. It's a request from the Clinton campaign to get the city to block off an area in downtown Ames for a speech on "labor issues" for an event of about 1,000 people.

Lucky for Clinton, it's a holiday. The campaign won't have to pay to block off the area by the parking meters, since they're free on holidays.

Who's the Winner?

It seems as soon as these presidential debates wrap up, the campaigns are claiming victory. Sunday's democratic debate at Drake University in Des Moines was no different.

A Few Kernels

35,448. That is a lot of corn kernels. That's how many kernels you dropped in Mason jars at the WHO-TV "Cast Your Kernel" Booth at the Iowa State Fair (click here for full results). Pretty simple idea (unless you liked it, and then I'll tell you I spent endless hours planning this complicated plan). All you had to do was drop a kernel into the jar of the person you thought should be the next Prez. 11 republicans, which became 10 after Tommy Thompson went back to the land of cheese and beer, and 8 democrats.

I wish I knew the demographic breakdown of fairgoers. But democrats clearly had their ears. 21,438 people voted for the dems. 14,010 went for the repubs.

Hillary Clinton took the top kernel honor. Her jars held nearly a third of the democratic vote. It was interesting to listen to people talk about her. You seem to love her or you hate (Hate is such a strong word. Let's say strongly dislike) her. Couples clashed. Friends fought. Strangers sparred.

John Edwards surged a bit, it seemed, after he and his wife visited the Fair. But he couldn't catch Clinton. Barack Obama urged the crowd to help him out when he stopped by our booth. He still lost to Clinton by more than 2,200 kernels. Bill Richardson finished a solid fourth (he seemed pleased when he stopped by to check out his totals). Joe Biden, Chris Dodd, your jars still have an awful lot of room in them. Detassling on a 105 degree late July day may feel a lot easier than the field you'll have to plow through to win the Caucuses.

On the republican side, Mitt Romney hardly broke a sweat despite the sweltering weather. He took more than 36% of the vote. Mike Huckabee bounced a bunch after the Straw Poll. He went from fourth to second. Rudy Giuliani slid from second to third. Fred Thompson finished fourth. Tom Tancredo took fifth. The Ron Paul Revolution put him sixth. Sam Brownback stood seventh. John McCain, Duncan Hunter and John Cox could have easily shared a jar. A few months ago, who would have thought McCain could only top two near-complete unknowns?

Pork is Good

(Courtesy: www.stonetavernfarm.com)

Two presidential candidates stopped by our Cast Your Kernel booth at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines. Their visits had far different feels.

As far as I know, John McCain flew into town just for the fair. And it was a quick visit. He walked around a bit, checked out the State Republican Party booth, came to our booth and then stopped by the Des Moines Register's booth. I think that was it. McCain really watches how much time he spends in the sun. Perhaps, that's why his words were so few when he took the stage at our booth. He talked for one minute and 31 seconds. He made a joke about cutting pork after he saw "Big Red", the big boar at the fair. Then he mentioned how he's standing firm on supporting the efforts in Iraq. That was about it. McCain usually is pretty generous with him time to the media. He sure wasn't this time. And to top it off, he didn't even cast his kernel for himself at our booth. His jar could definitely use the help.

Bill Richardson seemed in no apparent hurry during his visit. He came by our booth and voted for himself by dropping a kernel into his Mason jar. He joked that the number of kernels in his jar looked pretty good (he's been running third to Clinton, Edwards and Obama). He talked to dozens of people and then spent about 10 minutes in the blazing sun on our stage. It looked like his crowd was about two to three times larger than McCain's. (btw, they spoke right after each other and some of McCain's crowd was actually there for Richardson. McCain arrived about 20 minutes late).

Major Announcement

Governor Tom Vilsack to Make Major Campaign Announcement
During Press Conference Monday

What could it be, I wondered after reading that headline on an email this morning from the Clinton camp. Then I found out. Hillary Clinton will start running television ads. Is that a major announcement?

Tom Vilsack, her national co-chair, said the ad will introduce her to Iowans. When I questioned him on whether nearly every Iowan has already heard of her, he said, "they know her name. But they don't know the person." So turn on the tube if you want to meet her.

Grillin' with BO

Barack Obama has apparently found some dinnermates to "grill" him...at least, that's the way his campaign puts it...

Obama Campaign Announces Iowans Selected for “Grilling with Barack”
BBQ&A Will Give Obama a Chance to Respond to Iowans on the Issues Before the Iowa Debate

DES MOINES – The Obama for America campaign today announced the 10 Iowans selected to go “Grilling with Barack” at a BBQ on August 18th, the day before the ABC debate at Drake University. “Grilling with Barack” comes during Obama’s five-day “Road to Change” tour across Iowa August 15th through 19th.

“The hundreds of thoughtful, heartfelt questions we received are a testament to how seriously Iowans take their responsibility as the first-in-the-nation caucus state,” Obama said. “It was very difficult to narrow the selection to only 10 people, but I’m really looking forward to grilling out with them and talking about how together, we can change our politics in Washington.”

The campaign announced “Grilling with Barack” in a video featuring Obama on its Iowa campaign website. To enter, Iowans submitted a question they wanted to ask Obama at Iowa.BarackObama.com between August 7th and 11:59 PM on August 11th. The campaign then chose the 10 dinner guests based on the submissions.

The campaign received 807 submissions in just the one week the contest was open. The BBQ will be held in the Cedar Rapids area and specific details will be announced later this week.

The 10 Iowans selected for Grilling with Barack are listed below:

Matthew Josten, Ventura
Matthew is a college student and the son of a farmer in Cerro Gordo County. He’s interested in hearing about how Obama would address the issue of poverty in America. Other issues Matthew is concerned about are the Iraq war and how to restore our standing in the world.

Rose Holmes, Forest City
Rose is a single mother of an 11-year-old son. She is looking for a candidate who truly understands the health-care crisis and will do something to address it.

David Grant, Cedar Falls
David is an assistant professor of English at the University of Northern Iowa. He is interested in how Obama will address global climate change in a way that is fair and sustainable.

Laura Medberry, Fairbank
Laura is a principal at a rural elementary school in Buchanan County. Laura wants to know about Obama’s plans for rural America, specifically rural schools.

Jason Nissen, Fairbank
Jason is in the process of starting his own small software business. He wants to know about Obama’s thoughts on scientific research and the government’s role in funding stem-cell research.

Gail Kenkel, Council Bluffs
Gail is a public school teacher with a son in the military. She wants to know how we can fix No Child Left Behind in a way that supports academic excellence without overburdening teachers with paper work and the pressure to teach to the test.

Karen Osborne, New London
Karen is a retired mother of three from Henry County. She is like many Iowans out there, just looking to be convinced that a particular candidate is the right person to be our next president. She is also looking for someone will bring the country together, not seek to divide it.

Molly Cassens, Fairfield
Molly works for a company that recruits software engineers for various companies throughout the Midwest. Her husband is from Mozambique and she wants to know what Obama will do as president to help Africa with the crises that continent faces every day.

Emily Elliot, Grimes
Emily is a new mother. She and her husband are recent graduates of the University of Iowa and settled in the Urbandale area. They hope one day to start their own renewable energy business and want to know how an Obama administration will seek ways to develop the field and provide more opportunities in it.

Ron Carlson, Clearfield
Ron is a part-time pastor at a local church and a full-time student seeking his master’s of divinity degree. Ron wants to know how Obama plans to change a health-care system that others have unsuccessfully tried to change for decades.

Brownback at the Back of the Pack (of Speakers)

Sam Brownback has taken the stage with a sports coat. When he stood with the other candidates, he had gone without.

His crowd looks big. Will he make a move at 2nd or 3rd when the day is over?

Here are a few quotables:

"The best place to raise a child is between a mom and a dad bonded for life."

"The best way to reduce poverty in America is to have strong families."

"Faith is a good thing. Not a bad thing."

"Hard Workin' Man" is playing as he leaves the stage.

Is This His Farewell?

Tommy Thompson seemed spent last night when I saw him. He just didn't seem to be flowing with optimism. He's the only candidate, that I know of, at least, that has said he has to finished first or second in this Straw Poll. If he doesn't, he says he'll drop out of the race.

He's taking the stage here. I don't recognize the song that's playing. Now, he's thanking everybody for helping his campaign.

The national media seem to be ignoring his speech.

Lots of bikers in here to hear Thompson. Thompson's a proud Harley rider.

Here are a few quotes:

"Let's defeat breast cancer by 2015, prostate cancer by 2020 and colon cancer by 2025."

"If you're going to come into the country legally, you should learn the language."

"God love you. God love Iowa. And God love the United States of America."

Revenge is Sweet

I just ran into Polk Co Republican Chair Ted Sporer. He said he just had three people arrested for trespassing. He said they were causing problems. They were also part of that group that filed that suit in Federal Court this week, opposing the machines the repubs use to count ballots here.

I wonder why he had them arrested. Wouldn't it be punishment enough to just make them stand outside in the sauna?

Here Comes Huck

"I'm Walkin' on Sunshine" plays as Mike Huckabee's video plays. He's hugging just about everybody in his video. It's nearly 100 degrees in Ames today. I wonder if he'll be hugging everyone outside. That may not go over too well...

Here are a few of his words:

"Give American back to the people of Main Street, not just on Wall Street."

As a republican in Arkansas I feel about as out of place as Michael Vick at the Westminster Dog Show (My phone rang. I didn't quite get the verbatim on that one.)

A seven-year-old running a lemonade stand can understand the Fair Tax (the Fair Taxers were hoping to bring nearly 3,000 people here to the Straw Poll. If they unite as a group, could they give Huckabee a strong finish...2nd or 3rd?)

Keep your foreign oil...put it on your salad. Put it on your heads.

The Paul People Have Arrived

Laura Ingraham is trying her best to outshout the chants of the Ron Paul faithful. It ain't going well. They've been shouting "Ron Paul" while the Ed in 08 people tried to play their video. I doubt anyone hear could really hear much of anything.

Paul's campaign apparently didn't provide of a video of its own to play, so Paul has now taken the stage.

Here are some of his words:

"Our campaign is all about freedom, prosperity and peace."

We have a terrible threat of terrorism and we are not handling it well.

"9/11 could have been prevented if we had a lot more respect for the 2nd Amendment."

"The founders would be ashamed of us for what we're putting up with."

He wants to repeal the IRS and get rid of the 16th Amendment.

16th Amendment
The Congress shall have power to lay and collect taxes on incomes, from whatever source derived, without apportionment among the several States, and without regard to any census or enumeration.

"You pay to rebuild bridges in Iraq, while ours is falling down here."

Paul has definitely tapped into something. His supporters seem to be the most vocal. And judging by the size of his crowd inside Hilton, he does have a movement going in Iowa. Will he surprise some people with his final vote totals tonight or has this mostly been just a show of out-of-towners?