MSNBC's First Read just let out how it sees the Prez race stacking up. It looks like Iowa can expect lots o'ttention this fall.
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)
Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)
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John McCain put very little effort in the Iowa Caucuses in 2007. McCain refused to participate in the Iowa Republican Party Straw Poll in Ames last August and only put a half hearted effort in Iowa's first in the nation caucus on January 3rd, placing a weak 4th place behind Fred Thompson last January.
During John McCain's recent visit to Iowa on May 6th he slammed the Farm Bill and said he'd veto the legislation at the time of his visit. The Farm Bill passed overwhelmingly through both chambers of Congress (81-15) on May 15, 2008 with bipartisan support (both Iowa Senators Tom Harkin and Chuck Grassley supported the Farm Bill). In addition, McCain has repeatedly stated over the last year that he opposes Ethanol subsidies. It's hard to believe that rural voters in Iowa would be supportive of his candidacy. You can't trash ethanol and oppose the Farm Bill and expect to win in Iowa.
Dave
Let's bottom-line the issue in Iowa. Obama's support on January 3rd (100,000) nearly equaled that of all Republican candidates (120,000). All polling data in Iowa since the precinct causes indicates that Barack Obama is ahead and may pull out of double-digit victory in Iowa this fall. Last but not least is Senator Obamas superior organizational strength at the grassroots. The Obama campaign had in place at least 50 campaign offices around the state prior to the precinct caucuses and over 200 paid full-time field staff. The McCain campaign failed miserable in it's efforts in Iowa, finishing a weak 4th place. All adds up to a significant victory in Iowa next November.
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