Saturday, September 20, 2008

Iowa Election Poll: Obama beating McCain

For all the McPalin supporters pushing us to believe their team has found the big "mo"...well, our new poll doesn't seem to back that up. JoBama has opened up a double digit lead in Iowa. It's our station's first poll, so I don't have any comparisons to offer about who has the momentum right now. But the numbers favor Obama.

43% McCain (R)
54% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided

More specifics...Among women, Obama leads by 20 points; among men, Obama and McCain tie.

Among voters younger than Barack Obama, Obama leads by 15. Among voters older than John McCain, Obama leads by 9.

Among voters who are in-between the two candidates' ages, Obama leads by 7.

Among white voters -- 95% of Iowa's likely voters -- Obama leads by 8 points.

11% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 8% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain; Independents break for Obama by 9 points.

John McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, those who attend church regularly, pro-life voters, those focused on terrorism, among the 16% of likely voters who say they may yet change their mind, and in Southwest Iowa.

Obama is slightly ahead in Northwest Iowa and leads by double digits in the northeast and southeast portions of the state.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Iowa adults 09/17/08 through 09/18/08. Interviews were conducted during a time of exceptional financial turbulence, coinciding with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the federal rescue of AIG insurance company, and immediately following the federal takeover of Fannie Mae. Of the registered voters, 840 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 702 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Iowa has 7 Electoral College votes. George Bush carried Iowa by two-thirds of a point in 2004; Al Gore carried Iowa by one-third of a point in 2000.

1 comment:

Shane Vander Hart said...

I have a hard time with that poll, but it is what it is. I just don't see Iowa shifting that far left. If Obama carries Iowa that gap will tighten.