Pawlenty's Iowa Strategy

Hawkeye Hangover: Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty went "all in" in Iowa before his failed presidential run ended following a distant, disappointing 3rd place finish in the Iowa Straw Poll. Pawlenty never said he was all in during his campaign, at least I never got him to say that. However, now that he is no longer a candidate, he is all but saying he regrets his Iowa efforts. He added he thinks he could have skipped the straw poll. Here's what he had to say on MSNBC's Morning Joe...

Iowa Parades

Politicians on Parades: In case the floats, free candy and bands aren't enough, presidential candidates will also be stepping off around Iowa on Independence Day. Here's the lineup I have so far...

Rick Santorum--Hopefully, he has comfortable shoes. And he might want to pack an extra t-shirt, too. Santorum's schedule shows him walking in 3 parades Monday.

10:00am CT: Senator Santorum will take part in the Urbandale, IA Independence Day parade. Parade begins on 70th Street south of Douglas Street and heads to Old City Hall.

2:30pm CT: Senator Santorum will take part in the Pella, IA Independence Day parade. Parade route begins at Scholte Church, 2805 Fifield Road in Pella.

5:30pm CT: Senator Santorum will take part in the Iowa Falls, IA Independence Day parade. Parade begins on the corner of River Street and Union Street.

Newt Gingrich--It's a much lighter schedule for Gingrich than Santorum (that's one of the complaints from his former Iowa staffers). Gingrich's schedule says he will take part in the Clear Lake Parade at 10am.

Michele Bachmann--Gingrich will have some company in Clear Lake. Bachmann's coming, too. Maybe they could walk together...do a little step-for-step debate along the parade route?

I don't see any Iowa parades on the schedules for Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty or Hermain Cain.

Oh, yeah, I saw nothing on Mitt Romney or Jon Hunstman's schedules for Iowa parades either, just in case you wondered.

Des Moines Register Poll

Surprise, Surprise: The Des Moines Register sure just made some news with its first poll of likely Republican caucus goers for 2012. It was our understanding the poll would go up live on the Register's site at 9pm central, but it's already all over the internet about an hour early.

Nevertheless, here's my take, along with the results:


Mitt Romney: 23%. I feel surprised and not surprised by Romney's place. He's not showing Iowans much love so far this cycle but spent a bunch of time and dough in the state for 2008. So his name i.d. remains high. I wondered if more Iowans would "punish" him for skipping the state for the most part this cycle. But that doesn't really seem to be the case, at least not yet. What will this news do for the Romney camp? Will he skip the Republican Party of Iowa Straw Poll and then pick up the pace in the state after that if his poll standing stays high? Or does he think this poll shows he will do pretty well, even without spending much time here in the next 7 months, so he can save his time and money for New Hampshire and other states?

Michele Bachmann: 22%. She has to be the biggest positive surprise of the poll. And it could make for a nice weekend for her as she gets set to announce her campaign in her hometown of Waterloo in northeastern Iowa. O.K., it's really her "re-announcement" since she already announced during the CNN debate this month. Either way, this has to give her supporters a big lift. Will her campaign now show the organization and discipline it needs to carry through with a strong straw poll finish in August? And can she handle the raised expectations that will now follow thanks to this strong showing? She recently faced more "quiet" talk in Iowa that she could be one of the frontrunners. But this poll will now only intensify that talk. But it sure looks like she found a way to get back some of the attention Sarah Palin's Iowa visit this Tuesday threatened to take away, huh?


Herman Cain: 10%. I'm a bit surprised by this. He has been campaigning all over the state but I didn't know if enough Iowans knew him yet. I guess they do. I'm sure not what kind of campaign organization he has. He has some strength with the tea partiers and he knows how to fire up a crowd. I guess we'll find out in the next 7 weeks for the straw poll. But Cain has apparently made a name for himself so far. As a top 3 guy now in this poll, we will see how he faces the media scrutinty that could follow.

Newt Gingrich: 7%. I guess it's safe to say Iowa staffers aren't jumping up and down with this finish. Of course, he no longer has any paid Iowa staffers. Gingrich surely has some solid name recognition from his time in office. And this poll could show he has just a bit to go to find a top three finish. But will this month's implosion of his campaign push him down, especially since he didn't secure a site in the straw poll? And this poll was still interviewing caucus goers before his implosion had actually finished. So does it really reflect the state's full feelings toward him now? Or is this whole struggling campaign storyline overblown?

Ron Paul: 7%. I thought Paul might fare a little better. I thought he would come ahead of Cain and Gingrich. Paul has said his ideas are more mainstream this campaign, more so than the previous two times he's run for president. This poll shows he has a ways to go to find a strong showing. The straw poll could be a big test for his organizational strength to push him into the top tier.

Tim Pawlenty: 6%. Ouch. What more can you say? Pawlenty is essentially all in for Iowa. He has hired a big staff. But this poll doesn't show that he's connecting with people. He faces a TON of pressure in the next 7 weeks to up his standing for the straw poll. Does he have to shake up his staff? Does he have to change his message? Does he have to be more aggressive in his words and demeanor? What's next for him? If he doesn't pick it up, will he be done after the straw poll?


Rick Santorum: 4%. Santorum started out being not very well-known. This poll shows he has a long way to go to make a name for himself. He has spent as much time here as just about any other candidate. But it's not translating into supporters. If he finishes about this low in the straw poll, is his campaign finished?

Pawlenty Running for President

T Paw 2: Let's be honest, it's difficult to keep a big announcement secret in politics today. Usually some "source close to" the candidate lets some reporter know what's about to happen. Tim Pawlenty's announcement was a bit different. He pre-announced his own announcement. Aides let it out late last week that Pawlenty would announce his candidacy in Des Moines Monday. Well, not all aides. Eric Woolson, who signed on to lead Pawlenty's Iowa communications efforts still kept his lips mostly sealed to me on Sunday during our interview (and I wasn't even trying to get him to say what the announcement would be!) Woolson mentioned a few times the "major announcement" that was coming Monday. No leaks from him, gov.

Pawlenty provided his own leak, I guess you could say. He sent out a message on Facebook Sunday announcing what he would announce Monday. O.K., so much for the drama.

Pawlenty's campaign picked a picturesque setting for his Des Moines announcement Monday (by the way, how do Minnesotans feel about their former governor making his big announcement in Iowa rather than his home state?) using the roof/deck of the State Historical Building in downtown's East Village (yes, New Yorkers, Iowa has one, too). The golden dome of the capitol provided the backdrop and temperatures around 80 offered about the best weather one could hope this time of year. I doubt it will be difficult Tuesday to figure out whether your co-workers snuck off Monday to listen to the speech in person. Just look for the sunburn. If the campaign wanted to win over Iowans, maybe it could have offered some SPF protection (even the crotchety media-types would have had to accept that offer).

About 200 people came to hear the speech. Here's the verbatim of it. The crowd several times offered standing ovations, but this wasn't the loud rah-rah kind of announcement Iowans have seen in the past from some other candidates (Barack Obama to name one). Again and again, Pawlenty talked of the need to tell the truth to Americans. We'll see if this is the theme he uses during his Iowa campaign. If it is, expect to hear the Democrats offer their version of his truth, too. Democrats have made Pawlenty the prime target the past week. I counted 8 news releases from the party involving Pawlenty in the past 4 days. Is he the candidate they most fear right now? At least for now?

Tim Pawlenty's Changing Dialect

Southern TPaw: I wasn't the only one who noticed MinnesOOta's former governor Tim Pawlenty seemed to "southern" it up during the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition's event last week. Here's his full speech from that event in Waukee. Minnesota Public Radio took it a step further. A reporter pulled words from a Pawlenty address in Minnesota last year and compared them to him saying the same words at the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition event in Iowa. It's a fascinating idea, although I wish it included more than just one or two words at a time. In a perfect world, a sentence or two would make it a little easier to compare. But it's interesting, nonetheless. Check it out. What do you think?

Pawlenty Returns to Iowa

It's T-Paw, II. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, and likely 2012 presidential candidate (can I call him that yet?), is returning to Iowa in April. He will headline an event with the Iowans for Tax Relief. Four candidates for governor are also scheduled to appear. All 3 Repubs and Democratic former Des Moines school board member Jonathan Narcisse confirmed to be there. ITR said Governor Chet Culver's campaign never responded. Pawlenty is looking more and more like he is interested in Iowa (and running for president, of course).

Pawlenty last came to the metro for Republicans' Leadership for Iowa event November 7th at the Iowa State Fairgrounds. Although, his visit did get overshadowed a bit. The Republican candidates for governor also spoke that night and much of the attention focused on how former Governor Terry Branstad did in his debut (would it be re-debut?) before some Polk County Republicans. You might remember, I reported that weekend the reviews weren't all that impressive from him from the majority of people who talked to me about it.

Speaking of Governor Chet Culver... I first reported Wednesday that Culver's deputy campaign manager, Jesse Harris, was leaving the campaign to go work for Secretary of State Michael Mauro. It looks like I only had 1/2 of the departures though. Tom Beaumont of the Des Moines Register reports Grace Van Cleave, Culver's finance director, is also taking off. Culver's previous campaign manager, Andrew Roos, had already left the campaign.

This all happens as Culver deals with a recession, continuing downward poll numbers, talk that Democrats may not want him to run again and other talk that he could face a primary opponent (Narcisse? Someone else?)

Pawlenty for President

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty had his "coming out" before more than 500 Iowa Republicans Saturday night at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines. He has been here before, of course. But in 2008, he was here as John McCain's sidekick and cheerleader in McCain's ill-fated presidential run, both in Iowa and in the U.S. This was his first Iowa visit as the main attraction. He told Iowans he is also from the heartland, he shares their values and he won't be afraid to use the word, God. He also went out of his way to praise his wife, and in doing so, became, I presume, the first possible presidential candidate to come to Iowa and quote Ricky Bobby from "Talladega Nights" (I'm told from a Minneapolis reporter, this is a line he has used often...what? A politician recycles an applause line from audience to audience?) This morning Pawlenty's Twitter account tweeted a behind-the-scenes-look at the event last night, which includes the joke about his wife. Watch it below, along with original. Can anyone really deliver it as well as Ricky Bobby?

One clip you won't see is what can happen when an out-of-state politician comes to town to do the obligatory praise of that state's politicians. Pawlenty mistakenly called Iowa Sec. of Ag Bill Northey, "Dave", and called State Auditor Dave Vaudt, Dave "Voyt". Oops. He did correct Vaudt's name. I bet Pawlenty will get another chance to get it right:)

Huckabee Returns

TPaw vs. Huck: It looks like the first weekend in November could give us a little preview of 2012. Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty headlines the "Leadership for Iowa" dinner at the Iowa State Fairgrounds, a big fundraiser for the Republican Party of Iowa on Saturday, November 7th. The following day, former Arkansas governor and 2008 presidential candidate, Mike Huckabee, is scheduled for a three-city swing through the state to sign copies of his new Christmas book. Anyone seen Sarah Palin?

2 Iowans Help Pawlenty for President

Jonathan Martin, who wore out who knows how many pairs of shows trudging around Iowa following the candidates, posted a piece on the The Politico that shows possible 2012 presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty could have an Iowa touch with his early efforts. Jonathan writes that Pawlenty has brought on Sara Taylor and Terry Nelson. Taylor is a Dubuque native, Drake grad and President George W Bush's former political director. Nelson is a Marshalltown native, Univ of Iowa grad and former political director for the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign.