Des Moines Register Poll

Surprise, Surprise: The Des Moines Register sure just made some news with its first poll of likely Republican caucus goers for 2012. It was our understanding the poll would go up live on the Register's site at 9pm central, but it's already all over the internet about an hour early.

Nevertheless, here's my take, along with the results:


Mitt Romney: 23%. I feel surprised and not surprised by Romney's place. He's not showing Iowans much love so far this cycle but spent a bunch of time and dough in the state for 2008. So his name i.d. remains high. I wondered if more Iowans would "punish" him for skipping the state for the most part this cycle. But that doesn't really seem to be the case, at least not yet. What will this news do for the Romney camp? Will he skip the Republican Party of Iowa Straw Poll and then pick up the pace in the state after that if his poll standing stays high? Or does he think this poll shows he will do pretty well, even without spending much time here in the next 7 months, so he can save his time and money for New Hampshire and other states?

Michele Bachmann: 22%. She has to be the biggest positive surprise of the poll. And it could make for a nice weekend for her as she gets set to announce her campaign in her hometown of Waterloo in northeastern Iowa. O.K., it's really her "re-announcement" since she already announced during the CNN debate this month. Either way, this has to give her supporters a big lift. Will her campaign now show the organization and discipline it needs to carry through with a strong straw poll finish in August? And can she handle the raised expectations that will now follow thanks to this strong showing? She recently faced more "quiet" talk in Iowa that she could be one of the frontrunners. But this poll will now only intensify that talk. But it sure looks like she found a way to get back some of the attention Sarah Palin's Iowa visit this Tuesday threatened to take away, huh?


Herman Cain: 10%. I'm a bit surprised by this. He has been campaigning all over the state but I didn't know if enough Iowans knew him yet. I guess they do. I'm sure not what kind of campaign organization he has. He has some strength with the tea partiers and he knows how to fire up a crowd. I guess we'll find out in the next 7 weeks for the straw poll. But Cain has apparently made a name for himself so far. As a top 3 guy now in this poll, we will see how he faces the media scrutinty that could follow.

Newt Gingrich: 7%. I guess it's safe to say Iowa staffers aren't jumping up and down with this finish. Of course, he no longer has any paid Iowa staffers. Gingrich surely has some solid name recognition from his time in office. And this poll could show he has just a bit to go to find a top three finish. But will this month's implosion of his campaign push him down, especially since he didn't secure a site in the straw poll? And this poll was still interviewing caucus goers before his implosion had actually finished. So does it really reflect the state's full feelings toward him now? Or is this whole struggling campaign storyline overblown?

Ron Paul: 7%. I thought Paul might fare a little better. I thought he would come ahead of Cain and Gingrich. Paul has said his ideas are more mainstream this campaign, more so than the previous two times he's run for president. This poll shows he has a ways to go to find a strong showing. The straw poll could be a big test for his organizational strength to push him into the top tier.

Tim Pawlenty: 6%. Ouch. What more can you say? Pawlenty is essentially all in for Iowa. He has hired a big staff. But this poll doesn't show that he's connecting with people. He faces a TON of pressure in the next 7 weeks to up his standing for the straw poll. Does he have to shake up his staff? Does he have to change his message? Does he have to be more aggressive in his words and demeanor? What's next for him? If he doesn't pick it up, will he be done after the straw poll?


Rick Santorum: 4%. Santorum started out being not very well-known. This poll shows he has a long way to go to make a name for himself. He has spent as much time here as just about any other candidate. But it's not translating into supporters. If he finishes about this low in the straw poll, is his campaign finished?

Santorum Hires Two Iowans

Rick's Picks: Looks like former Republican Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is getting more serious about 2012. He just hired two Iowans now that we are about a year away from the caucuses.

Here's the release:

Santorum Announces Nick Ryan and Jill Latham as Iowa Advisors to America’s Foundation PAC

Washington, DC – Former Senator Rick Santorum (R-PA) announced today that his political action committee, America’s Foundation, has brought on Nick Ryan and Jill Latham of the Des Moines, IA-based Concordia Group LLC to serve as advisors.

“I am extremely pleased to have Nick and Jill on board to assist with my PAC’s efforts in Iowa and across the country. They have a proven track record of building grassroots support for candidates and conservative causes. As I continue to consider a run in 2012, they will play a critical role in helping determine if we are able to build the necessary support to embark on a possible run,” said Senator Santorum.

Nicholas T. Ryan, founder and President of Concordia Group LLC, has extensive experience in Iowa. He served as a top political advisor for Congressman Jim Nussle (R-Iowa) from 1999-2006, and ran three successful congressional campaigns in Eastern Iowa. Nick is also the founder of the American Future Fund which was established as a multi-state issue advocacy group designed to effectively communicate conservative and free market ideals.

“I have respected Senator Santorum for years and am excited to have the opportunity to work for him. He has a deep understanding of the issues that matter to conservatives across the nation," said Nick Ryan. "Senator Santorum is a full-spectrum conservative who has a demonstrated ability to motivate conservatives and Republicans. I am honored to help him continue the work he has started in Iowa by helping so many conservatives get elected this past November."

Jill Latham serves as Principal at Concordia Group LLC. Prior to joining the Concordia Group, Jill served as Iowa Political Director for Governor Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign. Jill has vast experience in government and politics, having worked on Capitol Hill and around the country, including President Bush’s re-election campaign in 2004. She also served as the Political Director of the Republican Party of Wisconsin from 2005 – 2006.

“As someone who played an active role in the 2008 Republican presidential primary, I have seen firsthand what appeals to Iowa Republican caucus goers – conservative values, honesty and a commitment to standing up for what you believe in – all attributes that Senator Santorum has. I look forward to working with Senator Santorum over the weeks in months ahead,” said Jill Latham.

Senator Santorum has been to Iowa nine times in the last 15 months.

Branstad Pushes Higher Ethanol Blend

Higher Blend: Iowa Governor Terry Branstad wants to push state subsidies from the E-10 blend in the state to E-15. Earlier this month, the Environmental Protection Agency ruled that vehicles made after 2001 could handle the higher ethanol blend. Branstad said during the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit in Des Moines that it is time to push E-15 in Iowa. Branstad said, “I'm going to be talking to all the presidential candidates about how important renewable fuels is to the future of this country and our competitiveness and how important it is to the state of Iowa."

Statehouse Sitdown: Branstad met at the Iowa Statehouse with former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, who also spoke at the summit. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum also spoke. But Branstad’s staff said the governor did not meet with Santorum. Branstad met last week with another possible 2012 Republican candidate: Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann. You think Branstad will be a popular guy for the next year with these (possible) candidates?