New Iowa Poll Shows President in Trouble in Iowa

Poll Problems: If the election were held tonight (and, of course, it isn't), President Barack Obama wouldn't have a good night in Iowa. The Des Moines Register just released its new Iowa Poll with head-to-head match ups between the president and the 4 Republican challengers. Three of them beat the president. Ron Paul beats him by 7%. Rick Santorum tops him by 4%. Mitt Romney, the target of Iowa Democrats for months, wins by 2%. The poll shows it's only Newt Gingrich the president can handle. And he does more than that, by clobbering Gingrich by 14%.

How does it happen? Your teenagers support Paul. Your dad supports Santorum. Your rich uncle backs Romney. And I haven't figured out from the poll who's left to stand up for Gingrich.


The surprises here?...I'd say Paul for many. Sure, he had a decent night in the Iowa Caucuses, placing 3rd. But he's done very little in the national caucus/primary contest so far. Yet he fares the best of the pack in Iowa in this poll. Hmm. He may not dominate with Iowa Republicans in the poll but he wins over Independents and some Democrats. Republican establishment-types don't think much of him. But sooner or later, they're going to have to figure out he is able to win over the young people like he does. The Ron Paul Revolution lives.

Santorum is fairly strong here, too. His lasting power in the race should help the Iowa Caucuses' credibility, too, although it might help if you forget about the part when the former state party chair said Romney won.

Romney hangs on to a slim lead over the president. Of course, Romney's been running for president the better part of the last 6 years, at least. He just couldn't convince Iowa Republicans he was the overwhelming choice for the job. That has continued on into the rest of the states. And this poll shows it lingers here, too. What will it take?

Not much to say about Gingrich. Iowans once liked him. Now they've dumped him like last week's leftovers. Nearly 2/3rds of Iowans view him unfavorably. A salad at the Iowa State Fair is more popular.

What about the president? He's more disliked than liked. And you'll even hear Republicans say he's a likable guy. Iowans are o.k. with him on his handling of foreign affairs. But they're far less than pleased on the economy. Far less. Looks like the president has some work to do in Iowa. A steadily improving economy could help. And no doubt some of his fall in the polls could be the result of 2 years of constant attacks from Republicans candidates. But this is the state that launched him to the White House. Wanna bet we see more of him in the months ahead?

Iowa 2012 will be a battleground just like Iowa 2008.

Iowa Poll

Pondering Polls: The Des Moines Register released its newest Iowa Poll on the race for governor. I can't think anyone in Governor Chet Culver's office was smiling. Culver's Republican challenger, Terry Branstad, is up 19%. That means Culver made up just 1% since the last Iowa Poll in February. Culver for the past year has told reporters there is a lot of time left in this race. He is quickly running out of time.

Despite these developments, the numbers barely budged:

He has officially launched his re-election
taken part in the first debate (where most insiders I've talked to think he either tied or slightly beat Branstad)
admitted mistakes (although not specifically pointing to any decision he has made, other than to blame communications' problems. Speaking of, he has made yet another communications' change in his campaign office. Ali Glisson is out. I don't know how many people this now makes who have worked and left Culver's campaign in the past year.)
repeatedly attacked Branstad and even started to say he "lies"
and he pulled out his cute kids to try to sell their dad's image in new ads.

What else can he do? I did find a few numbers interesting in the poll. As the Register's Tom Beaumont points out, Culver is losing Independents, communities of all sizes, all congressional districts, all age groups and all income levels. But here's what piqued my curiosity.

63% back Culver's commitment to improving education.
73% believe the state investing in infrastructure improvements (roads, bridges, etc.) will attract business (I-JOBS anyone?)
58% support keeping the state's commitment to stem-cell research
56% go for free pre-school for all Iowans, which will lead to a better work force
33% said they could be persuaded to change their pick for governor

Those would all seem to offer some hope for Culver, right? So what isn't working? And is it possible for him to turn these numbers around in such a short time? His campaign sent this out within minutes of the Register's poll going on-line.

"We believe that this poll serves as wake up call to Iowa voters," said Governor Culver's campaign manager, Donn Stanley. "When all is said and done, we believe that Iowans will ultimately choose Chet Culver, a leader who stands for Iowa values.

"The fact is," Stanley continued, "all one has to do is look back as recently as Tom Vilsack's race against Jim Ross Lightfoot in 1998 to see that this poll is not a harbinger of things to come. At this point in the race, Tom Vilsack was down a full 20 points in the Iowa Poll. I'm sure Governor Lightfoot would be happy to tell you the degree to which the Iowa Poll predicts the outcome of the race."

Is this really a fair comparison? Back then, Tom Vilsack was a relatively little-known candidate running in his first statewide race against Republican Congressman Jim Ross Lightfoot. Vilsack was down big with just 3 or 4 weeks to go. But there was no incumbent governor in this race.. The Culver-Vilsack comparison would seem to be far more appropriate had Vilsack been running for a second term as governor (as Culver is now) and not running for his first term.

New Iowa Poll

Poll Power: Iowa Governor Chet Culver was down big time in the Iowa Poll last February. His challenger, Republican former governor Terry Branstad, lead by 20 points, 53%-33%. The Des Moines Register releases its newest poll tonight. The Register's Kathie Obradovich will be with us on the Channel 13 News at 10 to break down the numbers. How much does Culver need to make up to convince national Democrats not to take their money elsewhere? There are many other states, especially in the Midwest, where other Democratic governors could use some financial help. There is only a little more than a month left in the race. So does Culver need to cut that previous 20-point gap in half? Is that too much? Or is that what it takes to convince the national money-handlers that he can still win?

What is your prediction of the poll numbers? And, yes, you have to put your prediction here BEFORE the new poll comes out tonight at 9pm central:)

Inside the Insiders: One of the benefits of our new software/editing system here at the station is that I get to watch the recording of Channel 13's "Insiders" from my desk while I'm working on tonight's newscasts. Here are a couple of quotes that stand out:

Democratic insider Jerry Crawford said this, "It takes a better spin doctor than me".
Republican insider Doug Gross had this to say, "It's not the big. It's the small."

But you will have to watch Sunday morning at 9:30 to find out what they were talking about at the time:)

Obama Widens Lead Over McCain

John McCain seems like he's been living in Iowa the past month or so. O.K., I'm exaggerating. But he's been here a bunch, a lot more frequently that he was here before September and before the Caucuses for that matter. From the numbers, it doesn't seem like it's doing him any good. In fact, it looks like it's having the opposite effect. Our new poll has him trailing by even more with just five days to go until the election. Sarah Palin is coming back to the state Monday with a stop in Dubuque. But how can the McCainiacs be very optimistic right now?

Here are our latest numbers:

40% McCain (R)
55% Obama (D)
3% Other
2% Undecided


Asked of 658 likely & actual voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 3.8%


Our U.S. Senate race looks like a blowout at this point.

35% Chris Reed (R)
61% Tom Harkin (D)
3% Undecided