Saturday, February 18, 2012

New Iowa Poll Shows President in Trouble in Iowa

Poll Problems: If the election were held tonight (and, of course, it isn't), President Barack Obama wouldn't have a good night in Iowa. The Des Moines Register just released its new Iowa Poll with head-to-head match ups between the president and the 4 Republican challengers. Three of them beat the president. Ron Paul beats him by 7%. Rick Santorum tops him by 4%. Mitt Romney, the target of Iowa Democrats for months, wins by 2%. The poll shows it's only Newt Gingrich the president can handle. And he does more than that, by clobbering Gingrich by 14%.

How does it happen? Your teenagers support Paul. Your dad supports Santorum. Your rich uncle backs Romney. And I haven't figured out from the poll who's left to stand up for Gingrich.

The surprises here?...I'd say Paul for many. Sure, he had a decent night in the Iowa Caucuses, placing 3rd. But he's done very little in the national caucus/primary contest so far. Yet he fares the best of the pack in Iowa in this poll. Hmm. He may not dominate with Iowa Republicans in the poll but he wins over Independents and some Democrats. Republican establishment-types don't think much of him. But sooner or later, they're going to have to figure out he is able to win over the young people like he does. The Ron Paul Revolution lives.

Santorum is fairly strong here, too. His lasting power in the race should help the Iowa Caucuses' credibility, too, although it might help if you forget about the part when the former state party chair said Romney won.

Romney hangs on to a slim lead over the president. Of course, Romney's been running for president the better part of the last 6 years, at least. He just couldn't convince Iowa Republicans he was the overwhelming choice for the job. That has continued on into the rest of the states. And this poll shows it lingers here, too. What will it take?

Not much to say about Gingrich. Iowans once liked him. Now they've dumped him like last week's leftovers. Nearly 2/3rds of Iowans view him unfavorably. A salad at the Iowa State Fair is more popular.

What about the president? He's more disliked than liked. And you'll even hear Republicans say he's a likable guy. Iowans are o.k. with him on his handling of foreign affairs. But they're far less than pleased on the economy. Far less. Looks like the president has some work to do in Iowa. A steadily improving economy could help. And no doubt some of his fall in the polls could be the result of 2 years of constant attacks from Republicans candidates. But this is the state that launched him to the White House. Wanna bet we see more of him in the months ahead?

Iowa 2012 will be a battleground just like Iowa 2008.

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