Debate Night

Naughty or Nice?: Newt Gingrich has surged to the top of the polls, both in Iowa and across the country. So, what does that mean for the debate tonight at Drake University in Des Moines? Candidates are running out of time to score some points with voters with the Iowa Caucuses just 24 nights away. They have tonight and one more debate in Sioux City before the caucuses on January 3rd. Then, of course, there's whatever you want to call the event with Donald Trump at Des Moines' Hoyt Sherman Place on December 27th. But only Gingrich and Rick Santorum have RSVP'd for that one.

What to expect tonight?

Newt Gingrich--Gingrich has to stay above it all. He said again today he's not going to get into the negative attacks like rivals do. He even said he'd come after a pro-Gingrich SuperPAC if it would go negative. So Gingrich can't lose his cool and get feisty tonight (although, isn't that what some of his supporters want?)

Mitt Romney--Romney has tried to act like he isn't going hard in Iowa. He's largely stayed away while his team has quietly tried to re-connect with supporters from his first run 4 years ago, along with connecting with Independents and business-minded moderate Republicans. But Romney's adding visits and surrogate stops as he's dropped in the polls and Gingrich has soared. Romney's surrogates are coming hard after Gingrich right now, ripping on him at every chance. Does Romney need to do that, too, tonight, or risk getting elbowed out of the top 3 finishers on caucus night.

Ron Paul--I'm very curious how Paul handles Gingrich tonight. He's running really critical ads on Iowa tv's right now. Will he continue it in person? I covered Paul at Principal Financial in Des Moines earlier this week. He said nothing of Gingrich during his remarks before Principal employees. But afterwards, as he walked off, he told Radio Iowa's Kay Henderson, “Who’s that? Who is that? Oh, that guy who used to be the speaker? I have to expose him for what he’s been doing all these years. That’s all we’re doing, trying to present the facts.” So will Paul bring it tonight?

Rick Santorum--He says he's having a "boomlet" right now...with very slow progress in the polls. He's laid the groundwork for what could be his surge, or at least mini-surge, on caucus night. But so far, the polls show little evidence of that. Santorum earned an endorsement last night from Iowa Secretary of State Matt Schultz, the first state office-holder to endorse. Schultz backed fellow Mormon, Mitt Romney, last time. Santorum has to start making a name for himself on the national stage. Tonight would offer that chance. But how does he come out hard without looking desperate? And will moderators give him much of a chance to have that opportunity?

Michele Bachmann--Bachmann bailed on an interview with our reporter today and skipped a veterans' forum. So it would seem the debate is getting her every attention. Bachmann has to find a way to do something no one has done this race...get a "re-surge". She had things going for her winning the Republican Party of Iowa's Straw Poll in Ames in August. But she has done very little retail campaigning in Iowa lately. How can she find a way to stand out tonight? Will she, too, come after Gingrich as the ultimate Washington insider? Or does she stick with her "I'm a mom" theme she uses often here, along with continuing to connect with the Evangelicals at a time social issues don't get the same play they did 4 years ago?

Rick Perry--Another tough memory loss for him after he had talked of a campaign "restart" just days ago. Perry's latest lapse during his editorial board meeting with the Des Moines Register Friday threatens to stick in people's minds, reminding them of his previous debate issues. What does he do tonight? Does he keep going after the sympathetic with his self-deprecating humor about his lapses (taking the risk he becomes politics version of the Chicago Cubs lovable loser)? Or does he have no choice but to come after Gingrich repeating his anti-Washington rhetoric, hoping Iowans haven't given up on him?



No matter who does it, though, I'd expect Gingrich to get a taste of what life is like as the front runner, don't you? The question is who wants to go after him and how much.

iowa GOP Governors' Debate, Part 3

Phew...the third and final Iowa GOP governors' debate is finished.

What stuck out to you? Plenty of drama between Bob Vander Plaats and Terry Branstad. Vander Plaats kept coming after Branstad numerous times, sometimes unexpectedly so on questions you may not have assumed would take a turn that way. Did it work for him? Did he score some points or did he look like he was just a flame-thrower looking for something to light Branstad's fire? What do you think? Good day for Team VP?

Branstad probably has a sore neck from all the head-shaking he was doing. He didn't hide his dissatisfaction of what Vander P was saying. He didn't have the outbursts he did during the Iowa Broadcast News Association's debate in Cedar Rapids. Remember that, when he'd yell out: "That's not true!" Seems like he held his composure more this time. But, the bigger question is, did he help himself by showing he wouldn't let Vander Plaats' attacks go without response? Or should he have avoided engaging with Vander Plaats and focused more on showing what he would do as governor and reassuring conservatives that he is, indeed, one of them and will cut spending, lower taxes (or more importantly to them, not RAISE taxes).

Roberts seemed to use his chance to point out (after all the VP and TB drama) that Iowans don't want politics as usual and want someone who can unite. Did you catch his final words when he said, "Am I the kind of person you want to see as your governor?"

And kudos to Kathie Obradovich, Kay Henderson and Dean Borg. Great format for the debate. It really moved along. We learned a lot about the candidates, their behaviors and even some differences.

Now, what did you think? Who helped himself? Who hurt himself?

Gubernatorial debates, Schickel for Roberts

I'm catching up on email as I wait to head over to Governor Culver's bill signing for the "reorg bill". Everyone at the statehouse seems to shorten reorganization to reorg. It saves a lot of time apparently. I'm curious what the governor will have to say about the savings. The bill doesn't seem to save enough money as he needs to make his budget numbers work.

Here are a few items from my inbox this morning...

Bill Schickel, the former state rep from Mason City and currently the main main at http://www.thebeanwalker.com/ ,(Publisher Tim Albrecht took a leave of absence to serve as communications director for Terry Branstad's campaign for governor) is leaving his party position to help out with Rod Roberts' campaign for governor.

Here's the release:

Republican Party of Iowa State Central Committee member Bill Schickel has resigned as Secretary of the Party in order to support the gubernatorial campaign of State Representative Rod Roberts. Schickel said he resigned because officers have agreed to remain neutral in the primary. He will, however, complete his term as a member of the State Central Committee representing the 4th District.

“I can no longer remain neutral,” said Schickel, a former state representative and Mason City mayor. “Our party is currently divided. Neither of the frontrunners has shown that they can bring the two sides together. If the current division continues we will certainly lose in November. Rod Roberts has the best chance of beating Chet Culver.”

“He is the only candidate who has demonstrated he can bring together the fiscal and social conservative wings of our party. He has also proven that he can attract the Independents and Democrats that are critical to victory,” Schickel said. “He has done it during the campaign. He did it as a state representative. And he did it in five previous elections.”

“Rod is an underdog right now, but he is also the candidate with momentum,” Schickel said. “While the numbers for the frontrunners have remained essentially flat, Rod in the past three months has gone from almost no voter recognition to capturing 19 percent of the Republican vote in the Dallas County straw poll and winning the Guthrie County straw poll this past weekend.”
“Whenever Republicans meet him, they are won over,” Schickel said. “He is a solid fiscal and social conservative who is also a fresh face. That is exactly what our party needs, and more importantly, what Iowa needs.”

As of today, it appears the 3 Republican candidates for governor will have 3 debates before the primary. And it appears former Terry Branstad's camp is setting the terms of this. Challengers, Bob Vander Plaats and Rod Roberts, want more debates. But here's part of the release from Branstad:

The Governor Branstad 2010 campaign has accepted an invitation to an April 7 debate to be held at KTIV studios in Sioux City. KTIV is partnering with sister stations, KWWL in Waterloo, and KTTC in Rochester, MN.

The second debate will be held in Cedar Rapids on May 1, and is sponsored by the Iowa Broadcast News Association.

The Governor Branstad 2010 campaign will also accept an invitation to participate in the traditional Des Moines Register debate in Des Moines, which is held each primary campaign.

“This will give Iowans all over the state a chance to view the Republican gubernatorial candidates, and where each stands on the issues,” said Boeyink. “We are excited to participate in these debates.”