Final Month Before Iowa Caucuses

Caucus Countdown: Less than one month left and it seems like the Republican presidential candidates have far different game-plans in the final weeks. Romney's "ad"-ding up. Bachmann's staying national. Gingrich is back on campus. Paul is, too, and more. Perry stays on tv but brings in his other half. And Santorum stays on the road.

Iowa Sets Its Caucus Date

Caucus Time: Iowa Republicans could have waited and waited some more to decide when to hold the 2012 Iowa Caucuses. They could have waited for Nevada to budge and move its January 14th caucuses back a few days (to make New Hampshire happy). They could have waited for New Hampshire to finally set its date, which as of right now, may or may not be January 10th. They could have waited until some other rogue state tried to jump into the "first 4" (IA, NH, NV, SC). But, no, tonight the Iowa Republican State Central Committee voted for a January 3rd date, the same date as 4 years ago.

So, now, at least we know, Iowans will have some company for the holidays. And dare we hope this WILL be the actual date? Maybe Nevada won't budge. If Republicans there want a Saturday caucus, they seem stuck with January 14th. South Carolina already picked January 21st. So, what if New Hampshire really goes off here and picks a December 6th or 13th primary date? Will Iowa move? Why should it? Perhaps, New Hampshire will only shoot itself in the foot setting its 2012 primary in 2011. The national media and campaigns could downplay the results. And could that mean Iowa will be that much MORE important?

If Mitt Romney keeps dancing around Iowa until then...let's say he wins New Hampshire, would he really want to risk a 2nd or 3rd place finish in Iowa by not really playing here when the caucuses take place about a month after New Hampshire? Wouldn't that risk taking away any momentum he gets from New Hampshire? Same with Rick Perry. If Perry can't win New Hampshire, would he want to also want to risk infrequent visits and lower results in Iowa on caucus night? That could damage him right out from the beginning. Imagine if Romney DID play in Iowa in this scenario and he won New Hampshire in December and then Iowa in January. Could he then run the table? Just something to think about.

Here's the release from Iowa GOP State Chair Matt Strawn--note the comments about those other states:

Des Moines – Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn tonight made the following statement after the Party’s State Central Committee approved a motion to hold Iowa’s First in the Nation Precinct Caucuses on Tuesday, January 3, 2012 at 7:00 p.m. (Iowa time).

“On behalf of over 600,000 Iowa Republicans, I’m excited to announce the first step Iowans will have to replace Barack Obama and his failed presidency will be next January 3 at our First in the Nation Iowa Caucuses,” said Strawn. “A January 3 date provides certainty to the voters, to our presidential candidates, and to the thousands of statewide volunteers who make the Caucus process a reflection of the very best of our representative democracy.”

Iowa’s precinct caucuses, which occur at over 1,700 precinct locations across the Hawkeye state, are best-known for the presidential preference poll that occurs along with traditional party organizing activities such as the election of precinct committeemen and platform discussions.

Strawn noted that the decision to hold the precinct caucuses on January 3 mirrored the decision made by Iowa Republican and Democrat officials during the 2008 presidential cycle when Iowa held the First in the Nation Caucuses on January 3 and New Hampshire held the First in the Nation Primary on January 8, 2008.

Strawn noted this process is best served with Iowa and New Hampshire continuing in lead-off roles as the First in the Nation Caucus and First in the Nation Primary, respectively. He said, “At a time when more and more Americans feel disconnected from our national leaders, we need places like Iowa and New Hampshire that require those who seek to lead us, actually meet us, look us in the eye and listen to our hopes and concerns for our families and our Nation.”

Strawn also expressed solidarity with his counterparts in New Hampshire, “I will do everything in my power on the RNC to hold Florida accountable for creating this mess, but the culpability for creating a compressed January calendar does not end there. The actions of early state newcomer Nevada have also exacerbated this problem and unnecessarily crowded the January calendar. Time remains for Nevada to respect the process, honor tradition and rectify the problem in a way that will restore order to the nomination calendar.

2012 Presidential Poll

Presidential Politics: Let's face it, 2012 won't be like the election of 2008. In 2008, both parties had major battles for the nomination...the double-open primaries. But, unless something crazy happens, and President Barack Obama decides to voluntarily become a one-term president (yes, I know, Republicans say he WILL be a one-termer, regardless of what he wants), only the Republicans will have the race to watch here. So, the question is, who will be in this race? It's now August 16th and the visitors to the Iowa State Fair this year numbered just a few: Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and next week former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum. The big name carryovers from the last cycle, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, have made no stops to eat something on a stick and have no plans to come this week (at least as far I know).

The Iowa Republican website, wwwtheiowarepublican.com (If you didn't know about this site, I guess you could have already figured out by the site's name that it's the Iowa Republicans' website. But, oh, well!) released its 2012 caucus poll. The top 2 finishers probably shouldn't surprise much: Huckabee then Romney. But how about Gingrich as the number 3? And Palin, with all the national attention she gets for virtually every word she writes, speaks or Facebooks, finished fourth? Texas Congressman Ron Paul (Revolution!) rounds out the top 5. TPaw, the next-door neighbor, was no where to be found in the top finishers. Did you think he would do better? Do Iowans still have no idea who he is? At some point soon, for his sake, don't they NEED to know who he is for him to be competitive in 2012? Here are the results:

Mitt Romney - 18


Tim Pawlenty - 1


Sarah Palin - 11


Haley Barbour - 


Ron Paul – 5

John Thune - 1


Rick Perry - 


Mike Huckabee - 22 


Newt Gingrich - 14

Rick Santorum - *

Other (DNR) - 1

Won’t participate in the caucuses (DNR) - 1

Don't know (DNR) – 23

Refused - 2