Romney Ad Response to Gingrich Surge?

Romney Responds: Mitt Romney and his campaign have worked for months to play that expectations game: use a more national strategy and focus on other states, rather than put so much emphasis on Iowa like he did 4 years ago. That's when he spent $10 million and still lost to Mike Huckabee's low budget operation. So this time around, his camp lowers expectations on where he can finish on caucus night. However, I think some people may mis-read what Romney has done this time. He has hardly blown off the state. Sure, he's not been here as much as many politicos, including Governor Terry Branstad and his former key state operative Doug Gross, have wanted. But Romney's people have worked to re-connect with supporters from 4 years ago through phone calls, literature and social media, along with trying to forge new connections in a more traditional business setting. Romney stood with South Dakota Senator John Thune before several hundred employees of Nationwide Insurance in Des Moines a few weeks ago. Tonight, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie holds another town hall at Kum & Go's headquarters in West Des Moines. The events give Romney a chance to focus more on more moderate Republicans, Independents and business-minded voters who aren't caught up as much in the social issues, where Romney's changing positions have given him trouble with some.

Romney's hope to lower expectations has worked, perhaps too well. He finishes 2nd or 3rd in every major recent poll of Iowa: The Des Moines Register, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times and the NBC/Marist. Newt Gingrich has strong leads in every one of those polls. And as long-time Iowa Republican activist Dave Roederer told me this week, that means Gingrich's new expectation is to win Iowa. Obviously, that's a huge change from just a few weeks ago. Roederer adds, though, that we'll see if Gingrich can put together a traditional caucus organization so rapidly to take advantage of his stunning turnaround. Roederer, by the way, is uncommitted to a campaign this time around as he serves as the state's budget director. He lead John McCain's efforts here 4 years ago.

Romney is out with a new ad. See if you think it's a subtle jab at his new rival in Iowa, who happens to have two ex-wives.

ROMNEY FOR PRESIDENT RELEASES TELEVISION ADVERTISEMENT, “LEADER”

Boston, MA – Romney for President today announced a new television advertisement that will be going up in Iowa and New Hampshire this week titled “Leader.” Throughout his life, Mitt Romney has been true to his family, his faith, and his country. As president, he will stay true to those same values and will never apologize for America.

To View “Leader,” Please See: http://mi.tt/rqmuys

AD Facts: Script For “Leader” (TV:30)

MITT ROMNEY: “I think people understand that I’m a man of steadiness and constancy. I don’t think you’re going to find somebody who has more of those attributes than I do.

“I’ve been married to the same woman for 25 – excuse me, I’ll get in trouble – for 42 years. I’ve been in the same church my entire life. I worked at one company, Bain, for 25 years. And I left that to go off and help save the Olympic Games.

“If I’m President of the United States, I will be true to my family, to my faith, and to our country, and I will never apologize for the United States of America.

“I’m Mitt Romney, and I approve this message.”