Christie Vilsack for Congress

Congressional Campaign: The congressional race for Iowa's new 4th district should be interesting. The state loses what is now the 5th district, so the lines will change. Republican Steve King represents the 5th now. He hasn't given his Democratic opponents much attention over the years. He refuses to debate them. He rarely even talks about them. But this race could be different. But there's no question the new numbers are still in his favor.

Here are the latest numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State's Office for registered voters:

176419 Republicans
135482 Democrats
178295 Independents
456 Others (Green, etc.)
490652 Total registered voters

King would have about a 40,937 registered party advantage. We can't, of course, assume all Republicans will vote for him and all Democrats will vote for Vilsack. But, for the sake of argument (and more importantly simplicity of the math for me!), let's assume people only vote along party lines. That would mean Vilsack will have to dominate the Independent vote. By my count she would have to get more than 61% of the Independents...109616 votes to 68678.

Perhaps, that explains what we heard during her announcement in Ames. She never once mentioned during her remarks that she was a Democrat. She later told me that, of course, she is a proud Democrat. But she said she is running "as a citizen". Vilsack knows the numbers here. So will she try to run more as an Independent, assuming the Democrats' strong dislike of King will bring them along without as much courting? She mentioned the importance of finding solutions in the middle and said Iowans don't believe compromise "is a dirty word". Vilsack said the solution to the country's $14 plus trillion debt problem is a combination of spending cuts and tax increases. She declined to say what income threshhold would trigger a tax hike and later told me she isn't in congress yet. We expect that specifics will follow. During her remarks she had said not paying your fair share of your taxes is like showing up at a "potluck without bringing a dish". It was just one of the more folksy lines she used as she sells herself as the small town Iowa girl looking to represent the small towns of the 4th district.

Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Matt Strawn sent out a statement calling Vilsack's announcement a "non-starter".

DES MOINES- As Christie Vilsack 'officially' enters the race for the 4th Congressional District, Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn calls the former First Lady's campaign a non-starter citing her close association with the Obama Administration and ties to liberal special interest groups.

"Iowans need a principled leader in Congress, not someone who had a front row seat in Washington, D.C. as President Obama racked up record debt and stifled private sector job creation," said Strawn

Strawn pointed to Mrs. Vilsack's association with the President's failed stimulus, expansive health care takeover and disastrous cap and trade energy policy as examples of issues where the newly-minted Ames resident is out-of-step with the district's voters.

"Perhaps that explains why only a few dozen actual Fourth District residents donated to her campaign," said Strawn noting recent campaign filings indicate only 31 contributors to the Vilsack campaign came from the district.

Strawn concluded by saying the new 4th Congressional District has more Iowa Republicans than any other district and Congressman Steve King has represented half of the new district since 2002. In 2010, Republican Congressman Tom Latham won every county that is now part of the new 4th District.

This "non-starter", however, attracted an ad from the National Republican Congressional Committee before she had even officially announced her campaign yet. Hmmm, so someone from the other side is apparently paying attention, don't you think?

Here's the ad:

Christie Vilsack for Congress

Breaking News: Former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack and her husband, Tom, are making the move to Ames. The word comes from Matt Paul, a spokesman for the Vilsack family. Vilsack is a native of Mt. Pleasant in the 2nd District, where she and her husband used to own a home. The Vilsacks currently rent a condo in Des Moines in the 3rd District. But fellow Democrats complicate her options of running in either of those districts. The new district boundaries, signed into law by Governor Terry Branstad today, meant current 2nd District Congressman Dave Loebsack's residence no longer fell in the new 2nd District. But Loebsack has already announced he would move to a new residence so he could run for re-election. Congressman Leonard Boswell already represents the 3rd District. So instead of causing party complications, Vilsack is moving into the 4th District. Paul will not confirm Vilsack is about to announce her intentions to run in the 4th District. But running in the 4th would put her up against Republican Congressman Steve King. King represents the 5th District. But redistricting eliminates that district and puts King's residence in the new 4th District.

This will be Vilsack's first run for elected office. She considered running for U.S. Senate against longtime Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley in 2010. But she gave way to former Democratic candidate for governor, Roxanne Conlin, who later failed to make the contest close.

Here's the story I did earlier in the day where Iowa Governor Terry Branstad said Vilsack would be a "fish out of water" if she moved to the 4th District. The story also shows Vilsack's husband, Tom's, reaction when we tried to get him to talk about his wife's plans.

Christie Vilsack for Congress

Congressman Christie: Last year, I talked with former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack about her interest in running for the U.S. Senate to take on Republican Chuck Grassley. She said she was qualified and did nothing to knock down the talk that she might do it. Two weeks later, she said she wouldn't. And Democrats (many of them) united around Des Moines attorney Roxanne Conlin as the candidate. The Vilsack-Conlin battle would have made for quite a primary, wouldn't it?

Jonathan Martin of the Politico just put out a story that he talked with Vilsack about running. His take is that she has interest in running for Congress in 2012. By that time, Iowa leaders will have redistricted the state and it's likely the state will lose 1 of its 5 current seats in Congress. Iowans need to start having more babies (I'm doing my part any day now:). Martin doesn't get into this in his piece, but Vilsack, I assume, would run in a Des Moines district. Running back home in Mt. Pleasant could put her up against the incumbent Democrat Dave Loebsack, unless he gets knocked off this November. But in Des Moines' 3rd district (if that is what it still is), she could step in and replace 7-term Congressman Leonard Boswell, who by that point would be 78. That's providing he doesn't get knocked off this November. Vilsack would definitely bring in a big name to the race. It would be especially interesting if her husband, Tom, would still be U.S. Secretary of Agriculture at that point.

But she hasn't run for anything before. Would that matter to you?