Iowa Parades

Politicians on Parades: In case the floats, free candy and bands aren't enough, presidential candidates will also be stepping off around Iowa on Independence Day. Here's the lineup I have so far...

Rick Santorum--Hopefully, he has comfortable shoes. And he might want to pack an extra t-shirt, too. Santorum's schedule shows him walking in 3 parades Monday.

10:00am CT: Senator Santorum will take part in the Urbandale, IA Independence Day parade. Parade begins on 70th Street south of Douglas Street and heads to Old City Hall.

2:30pm CT: Senator Santorum will take part in the Pella, IA Independence Day parade. Parade route begins at Scholte Church, 2805 Fifield Road in Pella.

5:30pm CT: Senator Santorum will take part in the Iowa Falls, IA Independence Day parade. Parade begins on the corner of River Street and Union Street.

Newt Gingrich--It's a much lighter schedule for Gingrich than Santorum (that's one of the complaints from his former Iowa staffers). Gingrich's schedule says he will take part in the Clear Lake Parade at 10am.

Michele Bachmann--Gingrich will have some company in Clear Lake. Bachmann's coming, too. Maybe they could walk together...do a little step-for-step debate along the parade route?

I don't see any Iowa parades on the schedules for Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty or Hermain Cain.

Oh, yeah, I saw nothing on Mitt Romney or Jon Hunstman's schedules for Iowa parades either, just in case you wondered.

Des Moines Register Poll

Surprise, Surprise: The Des Moines Register sure just made some news with its first poll of likely Republican caucus goers for 2012. It was our understanding the poll would go up live on the Register's site at 9pm central, but it's already all over the internet about an hour early.

Nevertheless, here's my take, along with the results:


Mitt Romney: 23%. I feel surprised and not surprised by Romney's place. He's not showing Iowans much love so far this cycle but spent a bunch of time and dough in the state for 2008. So his name i.d. remains high. I wondered if more Iowans would "punish" him for skipping the state for the most part this cycle. But that doesn't really seem to be the case, at least not yet. What will this news do for the Romney camp? Will he skip the Republican Party of Iowa Straw Poll and then pick up the pace in the state after that if his poll standing stays high? Or does he think this poll shows he will do pretty well, even without spending much time here in the next 7 months, so he can save his time and money for New Hampshire and other states?

Michele Bachmann: 22%. She has to be the biggest positive surprise of the poll. And it could make for a nice weekend for her as she gets set to announce her campaign in her hometown of Waterloo in northeastern Iowa. O.K., it's really her "re-announcement" since she already announced during the CNN debate this month. Either way, this has to give her supporters a big lift. Will her campaign now show the organization and discipline it needs to carry through with a strong straw poll finish in August? And can she handle the raised expectations that will now follow thanks to this strong showing? She recently faced more "quiet" talk in Iowa that she could be one of the frontrunners. But this poll will now only intensify that talk. But it sure looks like she found a way to get back some of the attention Sarah Palin's Iowa visit this Tuesday threatened to take away, huh?


Herman Cain: 10%. I'm a bit surprised by this. He has been campaigning all over the state but I didn't know if enough Iowans knew him yet. I guess they do. I'm sure not what kind of campaign organization he has. He has some strength with the tea partiers and he knows how to fire up a crowd. I guess we'll find out in the next 7 weeks for the straw poll. But Cain has apparently made a name for himself so far. As a top 3 guy now in this poll, we will see how he faces the media scrutinty that could follow.

Newt Gingrich: 7%. I guess it's safe to say Iowa staffers aren't jumping up and down with this finish. Of course, he no longer has any paid Iowa staffers. Gingrich surely has some solid name recognition from his time in office. And this poll could show he has just a bit to go to find a top three finish. But will this month's implosion of his campaign push him down, especially since he didn't secure a site in the straw poll? And this poll was still interviewing caucus goers before his implosion had actually finished. So does it really reflect the state's full feelings toward him now? Or is this whole struggling campaign storyline overblown?

Ron Paul: 7%. I thought Paul might fare a little better. I thought he would come ahead of Cain and Gingrich. Paul has said his ideas are more mainstream this campaign, more so than the previous two times he's run for president. This poll shows he has a ways to go to find a strong showing. The straw poll could be a big test for his organizational strength to push him into the top tier.

Tim Pawlenty: 6%. Ouch. What more can you say? Pawlenty is essentially all in for Iowa. He has hired a big staff. But this poll doesn't show that he's connecting with people. He faces a TON of pressure in the next 7 weeks to up his standing for the straw poll. Does he have to shake up his staff? Does he have to change his message? Does he have to be more aggressive in his words and demeanor? What's next for him? If he doesn't pick it up, will he be done after the straw poll?


Rick Santorum: 4%. Santorum started out being not very well-known. This poll shows he has a long way to go to make a name for himself. He has spent as much time here as just about any other candidate. But it's not translating into supporters. If he finishes about this low in the straw poll, is his campaign finished?

Paul for President

Paul's Prediction: Is there anyone who doesn't think Ron Paul is about to announce his third run for president? Tuesday afternoon, Paul opened his Iowa campaign headquarters in Ankeny. When a reporter asked when he would decide whether he would run for president again, Paul said he was "on the verge" of his decision and would announce it within a week. Unless Paul just took out a day-to-day lease on his new Iowa office, I think we all know what decision he will make.

Here is Paul's speech before a few dozen supporters (plenty of red, white and blue in the room):

NBC The Voice, Ron Paul Iowa, Tony LaRussa Daughter

All Quiet: NBC has high hopes for its new show, "The Voice". I have high hopes my voice will return. Tough to be on tv with no voice. So I'm sitting in silence today on the couch at home. Not fun.

The Revolution Returns: Texas Liber-publican Congressman Ron Paul used Des Moines as his backdrop to announce he had filed the papers with the Federal Elections Commission to form a presidential exploratory committee. And it was a quick stop. I timed it at 15 minutes for his event at the Holiday Inn across the street from the Des Moines International Airport. And much of that time included speeches from Paul's 3 Iowans who will head his Iowa efforts. Paul said he had no opening statements, took 3 questions from reporters, 2 from supporters and then said he had to leave. I'll be curious how this campaign will function in Iowa. There's no question his supporters are some of the most passionate you will see. Having said that, it was a major challenge trying to cover Paul's appearances in Iowa 4 years ago for one basic reason: the campaign would fail to let the media know about the events. When we are covering a dozen possible candidates, there just isn't time to call around all over the place trying to find out where he might be. Yeah, that may sound a little whiny. But it's reality. So here's hoping that if Paul wants to get covered this time around, his campaign does a better job of giving advance notice of his events.

Tony's Daughter: Tony LaRussa, the manager of the St. Louis Cardinals, is hardly a guy you would describe as "all smiles". I wonder sometimes if his face will physically crack if he even attempts to crack a smile. But his daughter is all smiles these days. She just got named to be one of the new cheerleaders for the Oakland Raiders, well, providing the NFL actually has a season this fall.