Iowa Congressional Races

Campaign 2010: It's been a bit of whiplash following the Iowa Congressional races. Even the most die-hard Democrat doesn't have a lot of hope of upsetting Republican Steve King in the 5th District or Tom Latham in the 4th District. But handicapping the other three races, all held by Democrats, is tougher to do. Over the summer, it seemed the "insiders" were saying the 3rd District looked most likely to flip (and some publications still call it a "toss up". Of course, I've lived in Iowa nearly 10 years now. And every election, Republicans say they are going to take this seat away from Des Moines Democrat Leonard Boswell. It never happens. This year was supposed to be different:

It's a Republican year.
Health care reform, cap and trade and the federal stimulus were less than popular with voters.
Boswell's Republican challenger, Brad Zaun, is a former mayor, hardware shop owner and current state senator, making him well-known in the metro.

But then, The Des Moines Register got a hold of a police report from a decade ago when Zaun's former girlfriend had called police to say he was harassing her and pounding on her house one night. Later Zaun flipped his position on ethanol subsidies. First, he was against them. Then, he seemed to support them. National Republicans held onto their money and put it other races. Boswell and national Democrats kept pounding away. I don't recall Boswell ever running this many negative ads before this race. Zaun has started airing a commercial the last few days with his wife. No question the Boswell ads/police report have hurt his standing with women. Will the new ad do any good or has the damage been done?

Fast forward a bit...and insiders were saying, no, it's the 1st District that could change hands. It wasn't that long ago that Democrat Bruce Braley seemed like he would have no real problems getting re-elected. Braley's mentioned on the shortest of short lists when people start to speculate about Democrats who could replace Democratic U.S. Senator Tom Harkin, if Harkin decides not to run again. But then...the American Future Fund dropped in a mess of money ($800,000 if my memory is accurate) going after Braley. All of a sudden, little-known Independence Republican attorney Ben Lange starting closing the gap and the national folks started paying a lot more attention to this race. Vice-President Joe Biden just flew into town to help Braley, probably not a destination figured would be on the travel itinerary a short time ago.
But...now, the latest talk is that...wait a minute...it's the 2nd District that could actually have the best chance of changing colors. Former college professor Dave Loebsack may not have the easy road to victory fellow Democrats once thought. This is the district that kept Republican Congressman Jim Leach in office for 30 years. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who ran against him 2 years ago, is running again. She quit her job and loaned her campaign nearly half-a-million bucks (can I get some of that?). Now, Republicans have eyes on her chances there.

I'm getting dizzy.

Rees Endorses Boswell

R Picks D: Monday, retired architect Mark Rees announced he is endorsing Des Moines Democratic Congressman Leonard Boswell. Boswell's campaign had promoted the event with this headline:

Boswell to Hold Press Conference with New Republican Endorsement

Some Republicans had questioned how "Republican" Rees really is/was. He was a registered Democrat when he filed to run as a Republican in Des Moines' 3rd Congressional District. He ran as the most left/most moderate (whatever words you want to use) candidate of the 7 Republican choices and finished 4th in the June primary. He said he has voted for both parties in the past. Today, Rees didn't say anything bad about Zaun. His toughest words, perhaps, were when a reporter asked if Zaun was too extreme for the party and Rees responded, "yes". Rees just said he respects how Boswell handles himself and the two have agreement on certain issues.


And this came to me from the Republican Party of Iowa:

Good morning,

If you’re covering the Rees/Boswell endorsement today, here is a quote from Executive Director Jim Anderson, for your consideration:

“Voters should take Mr. Rees’ comments with a grain of salt, given in recent years he has been a registered and active Democrat, participating in their primary as recently as 2006.”

There's speculation this race could be Boswell's toughest since he first got elected to Congress back in 1996 when he beat former GOP State Chairman Mike Mahaffey. Boswell had by far his closest race then when he won by just 1%. Will what Rees has to say sway any Republicans/Independents Boswell's way? Does holding the announcement show how tough the Boswell campaign knows this race will be?

Here are a few reactions to the announcement:

Zaun Campaign Reaction to Rees Endorsement

Please attribute this statement to Robert Haus, campaign spokesman for Brad Zaun:

"When he announced his bid for Congress, Mark Rees said, 'I am proud to say these (nominating) signatures were collected one door and one handshake at a time. The people I met were eager to share their opinions and ideas, but most of all their frustration with career politicians and business as usual in Washington.' theiowarepublican.com, March 18, 2010.

Mark has now thrown his support behind a 14-year, career politician who embodies 'business as usual' in Washington, DC. Apparently the frustrations Mark heard at the door have been forgotten for political expediency.”

Must See Recorded TV: How do you watch your favorite tv shows (I mean, besides the Channel 13 news, especially on the weekends, which you never miss. Right?!) A new survey shows barely half of Americans watch live television shows. The others watch their shows only after they record them on their Tivo or DVR (do people still use VCR's?). I can't imagine this is good news for advertisers. How do you watch? I must say we DVR almost all our favorite shows. Of course, now with a baby in the house, it's really the only way to do it. Other than watching my beloved Cardinals on tv (although, they're not quite as beloved right now), I don't know hardly any programs I watch live. News and sports may be the exceptions. And I'm noticing we watch more of our news recorded than we ever have.

Boswell Race Makes MSNBC Prediction List

November Madness: March Madness in college basketball gives us the 64-team field (well, it used to be 64 before they started trying to add an extra team or two in there). MSNBC has its own field of 64 out today. It's First Read's prediction of the most likely seats that could flip from one party to the other in Congress this November. One Iowa race makes the list, albeit near the end. 3rd District Congressman Leonard Boswell, the Democrat, vs. Urbandale State Senator Brad Zaun, the Republican. You have to scan down the list to find it.

1. TN-6 (D-Open-Gordon retiring)
2. LA-3 (D-Open-Melancon running for Senate)
3. LA-2 (R-Cao)
4. DE-AL (R-Open-Castle running for Senate)
5. AR-2 (D-Open-Snyder retiring)
6. NY-29 (D-Open-Massa retired)
7. NM-2 (D-Teague)
8. OH-1 (D-Driehaus)
9. IN-8 (D-Open-Ellsworth running for Senate)
10. MD-1 (D-Kratovil)
11. KS-3 (D-Open-Moore retiring)
12. IL-10 (R-Open-Kirk running for Senate)
13. OH-15 (D-Kilroy)
14. HI-1 (R-Djou)
15. VA-2 (D-Nye)
16. VA-5 (D-Perriello)
17. MS-1 (D-Childers)
18. CO-4 (D-Markey)
19. PA-7 (D-Open-Sestak running for Senate)
20. PA-11 (D-Kanjorski)
21. FL-8 (D-Grayson)
22. NY-24 (D-Arcuri)
23. MI-1 (D-Open-Stupak retiring)
24. NH-1 (D-Shea-Porter)
25. SD-AL (D-Herseth-Sandlin)
26. NV-3 (D-Titus)
27. ND-AL (D-Pomeroy)
28. PA-3 (D-Dahlkemper)
29. FL-24 (D-Kosmas)
30. NH-2 (D-Open-Hodes running for Senate)
31. MI-7 (D-Schauer freshman)
32. TN-8 (D-Open-Tanner retiring)
33. TX-17 (D-Edwards)
34. AL-2 (D-Bright)
35. CA-3 (R-Lungren)
36. AZ-8 (D-Giffords)
37. OH-16 (D-Boccieri)
38. AR-1 (D-Berry)
39. SC-5 (D-Spratt)
40. WI-7 (D-Open-Obey retiring)
41. TX-23 (D-Rodriguez)
42. NY-19 (D-Hall)
43. FL-2 (D-Boyd)
44. WA-3 (D-Open-Baird retiring)
45. KY-6 (D-Chandler)
46. FL-25 (R-Diaz-Balart)
47. CA-11 (D-McNerney)
48. IN-9 (D-Hill)
49. IN-2 (D-Donnelly)
50. NC-8 (D-Kissell)
51. IL-11 (D-Halvorson)
52. IL-14 (D-Foster)
53. PA-15 (R-Dent)
54. WA-8 (R-Reichert)
55. WV-1 (D-Open-Mollohan lost in primary)
56. AL-5 (R-Open-Griffith lost in a primary)
57. VA-11 (D-Connolly)
58. IA-3 (D-Boswell)
59. AZ-5 (D-Mitchell)
60. AZ-1 (D-Kirkpatrick)
61. MO-4 (D-Skelton)
62. MI-9 (D-Peters)
63. OH-13 (D-Sutton)
64. NY-20 (D-Murphy)

Reds Seeing Red: Thanks, Brandon Phillips. Phillips is the 2nd basemen for the Cincinnati Reds who ran his mouth dogging my St. Louis Cardinals just as the series began. At the time, the Reds lead the division over the Cards. Phillips mouthed off, the two teams had a brawl on the field and the Cardinals swept the 3-game series. You think the loudmouth regrets spouting off now? I would love to have had a camera in the Reds locker room after the Cards finished off the series. I bet Phillips wasn't so cocky then to his teammates. Perhaps, they had a few choice words for him after his words of stupidity looked to energize the Cards into the 3-game butt-kicking. Thanks, Brandon. Here's the fight in case you need a distraction today at work.