Three Weeks to Go

The Bet: Two days after the Republican presidential candidate debate in Des Moines, Democrats are still talking about Mitt Romney's extended hand Rick Perry left hanging. Democrats have kept their attention on Romney for months even as other Republicans surpassed Romney in the polls. It gives you an idea which candidate they fear most. Having said that, as they focus on Romney, Romney has switched his focus. Romney had concentrated on Perry more than any other Republican since Perry entered the race. However, with Perry's fall following disappointing debate performances, he apparently is no longer top of mind for Romney. Romney's now concentrating on the man who's passed him in Iowa and national polls: Newt Gingrich.

Here are a few releases I had today to show you what I mean:

First, from the Democratic National Committee...

The Coverage Continues: “Mitt Romney Hounded for 10k bet”

Mitt Romney hounded for $10K bet
CBS News // Stephanie Condon
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is getting hammered by both his Democratic and Republican opponents for challenging Rick Perry to a $10,000 bet on Saturday night, leaving the former Massachusetts governor on defense. Romney challenged Perry to the $10,000 bet during Saturday night's debate after the Texas governor accused Romney of once advocating for using Massachusetts' health care mandate as a national model. "This was an outrageous number to answer an outrageous charge from [Perry], and it's been proven wrong time and time again, and he keeps raising it," Romney said on Fox News Monday morning. "I said 'Okay, let's put something outrageous there'. It's like saying 'Hey, I'll bet you a million bucks X, Y, or Z.'"

DNC Puts Out Romney-Themed $10,000 Bill
TPM//Benjy Sarlin
According to a DNC spokesman, Democrats are planning on distributing this photo shopped $10,000 “Romney Reserve Note” to state parties and other allies around the country.

The DNC Introduces The $10,000 Romney Bill
Huffington Post//Sam Stein
Sensing a bit of opportunity to cast Mitt Romney as even more of a plutocrat, the Democratic National Committee is advising party officials to start deploying the below image, depicting the former governor as the face on the $10,000 bill. The hook here is Romney's way-too-casual $10,000 bet to Rick Perry during Saturday night's debate. A DNC official emails that "these are going out to state parties and allies and will be showing up in all types of iterations" included being "handed out at events and protests used online and perhaps even on merchandise." The risk (if there is one): it presents Romney as president -- after all, presidents' faces are usually the ones that end up on currency.

Mitt Romney’s $10,000 mistake
The Washington Post // Chris Cillizza and Aaron Blake
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney’s baffling decision to propose a $10,000 bet with Texas Gov. Rick Perry during Saturday night’s Republican presidential debate dominated the after-action analysis of the event. But did Romney simply have a bad night? Or will the $10,000 bet continue to haunt him in the final three weeks before the Iowa caucuses? That depends on who you ask. The Romney team is adamant that no harm has been done. Stuart Stevens, Romney’s lead ad maker, called the proposed bet a “very real moment” in which his candidate “back[ed] somebody down with a bluff bet.”

DNC boss: Romney $10K bet a loser
Politico//MJ Lee
The Democratic National Committee stepped up its attack on Gov. Mitt Romney’s $10,000 bet, with chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz on Monday calling out the Republican presidential hopeful for being “out of touch” with America’s middle class and working families. “I think the governor consistently makes clear that he remains out of touch remarkably with the middle class, with working families,” Wasserman Schultz said on Fox News, calling Romney a candidate that “continues to stand up and fight for the wealthiest most fortunate Americans.” In Saturday’s GOP presidential debate, the former Massachusetts governor drew fire from all directions after he offered a $10,000 bet to Rick Perry to challenge the Texas governor’s claim regarding a detail in Romney’s book.

DNC, Perry Go After Romney for $10,000 Bet
Real Clear Politics // Caitlin Huey-Burns
Mitt Romney is taking heat from both sides of the aisle for offering a $10,000 bet to rival Rick Perry during Saturday's Iowa GOP presidential debate. The former Massachusetts governor bet the Texas governor that he didn't advocate for a national health care plan in a previous edition of his book, "No Apology." The Democratic National Committee and Perry released Web videos slamming Romney for the bet, painting him as a candidate who is out of touch with average Americans. Soon after Romney offered Perry the wager -- which his campaign downplayed as hypothetical because he was sure he was right -- in Des Moines Saturday night, the DNC went on the offense with the Twitter hash tag "#What10kBuys." The DNC came out with a Web video the next day titled "Mitt Romney: Simply Out of Touch -- Ten Thousand Times Over," which attacks the former governor for calling a $1,500 tax cut for the middle class a Band-Aid, for joking that he is "also unemployed," and saying "corporations are people."

Mitt Romney hounded for $10K bet
CBS News // Stephanie Condon
Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney is getting hammered by both his Democratic and Republican opponents for challenging Rick Perry to a $10,000 bet on Saturday night, leaving the former Massachusetts governor on defense. Romney challenged Perry to the $10,000 bet during Saturday night's debate after the Texas governor accused Romney of once advocating for using Massachusetts' health care mandate as a national model. "This was an outrageous number to answer an outrageous charge from [Perry], and it's been proven wrong time and time again, and he keeps raising it," Romney said on Fox News Monday morning. "I said 'Okay, let's put something outrageous there'. It's like saying 'Hey, I'll bet you a million bucks X, Y, or Z.'"

Did Romney's $10,000 Bet Hurt His Chances With Iowa Voters?
ABC 9 KCRG, Cedar Rapids//Jillian Petrus
Political analysts say former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney made a big mistake during a GOP debate in Des Moines Saturday night. Romney was fielding attacks from Rick Perry over healthcare policy. In an effort to stop the criticism, Romney challenged Perry to a 10,000 dollar bet on Romney’s position on the individual mandate in the nation’s new health insurance law. Experts say the comment makes Romney appear disconnected with middle-class Americans, other’s suggest the candidate was just trying to make a joke to change the subject. Either way the backlash could not come at a worse time for Romney. With the caucuses less than a month away, TV9 spoke with Iowa voters to get their reaction to the remarks.

Romney’s $10,000 Bet Highlights Personal Wealth
AP//Steve Peoples
He could have bet a beer. Or maybe a steak dinner. But during a heated dispute with Rick Perry during Saturday night’s debate in Des Moines, Iowa, Mitt Romney extended his right hand and asked the Texas governor if he’d wager $10,000 to settle a dispute over his healthcare record. The rich bet instantly provided Romney’s opponents with new ammunition for their charge that he’s out of touch with middle-class America. “I’m just saying, you’re for individual mandates, my friend,” Perry said to Romney. “You’ve raised that before, Rick, and you’re simply wrong,” Romney responded, extending his hand toward Perry. “Rick, I’ll tell you what: 10,000 bucks?” Perry laughed it off: “I’m not in the betting business.”

Romney: Gingrich should return Freddie Mac money
AP//Kasie Hunt
Separately Monday, Romney further dismissed the $10,000 bet he offered Texas Gov. Rick Perry during a debate Saturday in Iowa. He called it "an outrageous number to answer an outrageous charge" — namely, Perry's claim that Romney changed language in the paperback version of his book that referred to support for a health care mandate. The bet sparked charges that Romney, a multimillionaire businessman, is out of step with the economic challenges facing ordinary people.

Mitt Romney's $10,000 bet: Will he survive it?
Christian Science Monitor//Ros Krasny
Republican Mitt Romney was back on familiar turf in New Hampshire Sunday, looking to steady his White House campaign after a potentially damaging gaffe over a wager he offered at a candidate's debate in Iowa. Speaking to reporters after a town hall meeting, Romney made light of the incident Saturday when he offered to bet Texas Governor Rick Perry $10,000 to prove that what Perry said about Romney's book about Massachusetts' controversial healthcare law was true. Perry said that in the first edition of his book that Romney wanted to impose a health insurance mandate at the federal level.

And this one is from Romney's campaign...

NOT THE HEADLINES NEWT WAS LOOKING FOR…

Fox News’ Brit Hume: “Does [Gingrich] really believe that what he did for Freddie Mac is similar to what Romney did at Bain? Probably not. But when Newt Gingrich feels threatened or upstaged, he sometimes reaches for whatever weapon comes to hand and just starts swinging. Just ask Paul Ryan.” (Fox News’ “Special Report,” 12/12/11)

Click Here To Watch

Associated Press Headline: “Study: Gingrich Tax Plan Would Worsen Deficit” (The Associated Press, 12/12/11)

· Tax Policy Center: Gingrich’s Tax Plan Would Blow A Huge Hole In The Federal Budget Deficit. “A new independent study says the tax plan by GOP presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich would provide big tax breaks to the rich and blow a huge hole in the federal budget deficit. The analysis by the Tax Policy Center says households making more than $1 million a year would see their taxes drop by an average of 62 percent.” (Stephen Ohlemacher, “Study: Gingrich Tax Plan Would Worsen Deficit,” The Associated Press, 12/12/11)

Weekly Standard Headline: “Gingrich Hits Romney From The Left” (Weekly Standard, 12/12/11)

· Weekly Standard’s Fred Barnes: “Newt Gingrich Has Adopted An Anti-Free Market Argument – A Favorite Of The Political Left – To Criticize Mitt Romney.” (Fred Barnes, “Gingrich Hits Romney From The Left,” Weekly Standard, 12/12/11)

American Spectator Headline: “Gingrich Attacks Romney From The Far Left” (American Spectator, 12/12/11)

· American Spectator’s Joseph Lawler: “Gingrich Has Basically Adopted The Language Of The Anti-Corporate Left With This Line Of Attack.” (Joseph Lawler, “Gingrich Attacks Romney From The Far Left,” American Spectator, 12/12/11)

Washington Post Headline: “Gingrich Slips: Shows His Nasty, Anti-Free Market Self” (The Washington Post, 12/12/11)

· The Washington Post’s Jennifer Rubin: “Gingrich Is Still His Own Worst Enemy And The Best Witness To Debunk The Canard That He’s A Tea Party, Pro-Free Market Guy.” (Jennifer Rubin, “Gingrich Slips: Shows His Nasty, Anti-Free Market Self,” The Washington Post, 12/12/11)

Huffington Post Headline: “Newt Gingrich Praised SEIU Head Andy Stern's Forward-Looking Vision” (The Huffington Post, 12/12/11)

· In One Of His Books, Gingrich Praised Former SEIU Head Andy Stern – “Who Remains A Close Adviser” To President Obama. “Yet Gingrich also worked with Andy Stern, the former leader of the Service Employees International Union … In his book … Gingrich praises the SEIU head, who remains a close adviser of the [sic] President Obama.” (Sam Stein, “Newt Gingrich Praised SEIU Head Andy Stern's Forward-Looking Vision,” The Huffington Post, 12/12/11)

Politico Headline: “Gingrich As Anonymous Attack Dog” (Politico, 12/12/11)

· Politico: Gingrich Was “Revealed As An Anonymous Source Hitting Back At A Mitt Romney Surrogate.” “There's a terrific nugget at the bottom of Trip Gabriel's piece on Newt Gingrich face his warts head-on [sic], with the candidate exhibiting some watch-what-I-say-not-what-I-do behavior, and revealed as an anonymous source hitting back at a Mitt Romney surrogate…” (Maggie Haberman, “Gingrich As Anonymous Attack Dog,” Politico, 12/12/11)

Savannah Morning News Headline: “Not A Lobbyist, Newt Gingrich Says, But It Looks Like He Was In Georgia” (Savannah Morning News, 12/11/11)

· “In 2004, The Former U.S. House Speaker Apparently Was A Lobbyist As It Was Then Spelled Out In Georgia Law, And Failed To Register As A Lobbyist, As The Law Required.” (Larry Peterson , “Not A Lobbyist, Newt Gingrich Says, But It Looks Like He Was In Georgia,” Savannah Morning News, 12/11/11)

· Politico Headline: “Lobbying, In Georgia” (Politico, 12/12/11)

Huffington Post Headline: “Michael Savage Offers Newt Gingrich One Million Dollars To Drop Out Of Race” (The Huffington Post, 12/12/11)

· Conservative Radio Host Michael Savage Offered Gingrich $1 Million To Leave The Race, Saying He Believes Gingrich Cannot Beat President Obama. “Conservative radio host Michael Savage has offered Newt Gingrich $1 million to drop out of the Republican primary race … Savage, who hosts the third-highest rated radio program in the country, outlined the reasons why he believed Gingrich was incapable of beating Obama.” (“Michael Savage Offers Newt Gingrich One Million Dollars To Drop Out Of Race,” The Huffington Post, 12/12/11)

National Review Headline: “Newt Is The Problem” (National Review, 12/12/11)

· Avik Roy: “Newt Gingrich Is One Of The Principal Abettors Of The Exploding Health-Care Entitlement State We Face Today.” (Avik Roy, “Newt Is The Problem,” National Review, 12/12/11)

Romney Ad Response to Gingrich Surge?

Romney Responds: Mitt Romney and his campaign have worked for months to play that expectations game: use a more national strategy and focus on other states, rather than put so much emphasis on Iowa like he did 4 years ago. That's when he spent $10 million and still lost to Mike Huckabee's low budget operation. So this time around, his camp lowers expectations on where he can finish on caucus night. However, I think some people may mis-read what Romney has done this time. He has hardly blown off the state. Sure, he's not been here as much as many politicos, including Governor Terry Branstad and his former key state operative Doug Gross, have wanted. But Romney's people have worked to re-connect with supporters from 4 years ago through phone calls, literature and social media, along with trying to forge new connections in a more traditional business setting. Romney stood with South Dakota Senator John Thune before several hundred employees of Nationwide Insurance in Des Moines a few weeks ago. Tonight, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie holds another town hall at Kum & Go's headquarters in West Des Moines. The events give Romney a chance to focus more on more moderate Republicans, Independents and business-minded voters who aren't caught up as much in the social issues, where Romney's changing positions have given him trouble with some.

Romney's hope to lower expectations has worked, perhaps too well. He finishes 2nd or 3rd in every major recent poll of Iowa: The Des Moines Register, ABC/Washington Post, CBS/New York Times and the NBC/Marist. Newt Gingrich has strong leads in every one of those polls. And as long-time Iowa Republican activist Dave Roederer told me this week, that means Gingrich's new expectation is to win Iowa. Obviously, that's a huge change from just a few weeks ago. Roederer adds, though, that we'll see if Gingrich can put together a traditional caucus organization so rapidly to take advantage of his stunning turnaround. Roederer, by the way, is uncommitted to a campaign this time around as he serves as the state's budget director. He lead John McCain's efforts here 4 years ago.

Romney is out with a new ad. See if you think it's a subtle jab at his new rival in Iowa, who happens to have two ex-wives.

ROMNEY FOR PRESIDENT RELEASES TELEVISION ADVERTISEMENT, “LEADER”

Boston, MA – Romney for President today announced a new television advertisement that will be going up in Iowa and New Hampshire this week titled “Leader.” Throughout his life, Mitt Romney has been true to his family, his faith, and his country. As president, he will stay true to those same values and will never apologize for America.

To View “Leader,” Please See: http://mi.tt/rqmuys

AD Facts: Script For “Leader” (TV:30)

MITT ROMNEY: “I think people understand that I’m a man of steadiness and constancy. I don’t think you’re going to find somebody who has more of those attributes than I do.

“I’ve been married to the same woman for 25 – excuse me, I’ll get in trouble – for 42 years. I’ve been in the same church my entire life. I worked at one company, Bain, for 25 years. And I left that to go off and help save the Olympic Games.

“If I’m President of the United States, I will be true to my family, to my faith, and to our country, and I will never apologize for the United States of America.

“I’m Mitt Romney, and I approve this message.”

Former Iowa Governor Endorses Romney

Ray for Romney: Iowa's most prominently-elected Republicans: Governor Terry Branstad, Senator Chuck Grassley, Congressman Steve King and Congressman Tom Latham have all declined to endorse a Republican presidential candidate so far in this race. But today, Mitt Romney's campaign announced former Iowa Governor Bob Ray has endorsed his efforts. Governor Ray isn't an active as he once was in Iowa politics, of course, but you do still see him make numerous public appearances. Ray's approval will add to that "establishment" list of supporters Romney's camp has been releasing. I wonder when we will see Newt Gingrich start to release prominent supporters?

Here's the release from the campaign:

MITT ROMNEY ANNOUNCES SUPPORT OF FORMER IOWA GOVERNOR ROBERT RAY

Boston, MA – Mitt Romney today announced the support of former Iowa Governor Robert Ray.

“I am truly honored to have Governor Ray’s support,” said Mitt Romney. “Not only was he a great governor but he is also a tremendous leader with a long history serving both Iowa and the country. In the coming weeks, I look forward to working with Governor Ray to bring my message of a “Simpler, Smaller, and Smarter” approach to government to all Iowans.”

Announcing his support, former Governor Ray said, “I want our next president to be someone whose character and judgment I respect and whose ideas are valid for our country. I believe Mitt Romney offers the personal qualities and vision to become a truly great president. Mitt has a strong record in business, including turning around the Winter Olympics, and leading the state of Massachusetts. Mitt Romney would represent America’s values and interests in an uncertain, challenging, and competitive world. With our future in mind, I am proud to support Governor Romney in the caucuses and hope to vote for him next November.”

Background On Governor Robert Ray:

Robert Ray Was The Governor Of Iowa From 1969 Until 1983. After leaving office, Governor Ray also served as interim Mayor of Des Moines and as interim President of Drake University. He also founded the character education program, Character Counts. Governor Ray is a U.S. Army veteran and was a delegate to the United Nations Conference on Refugees in Geneva, Switzerland.

Endorsements: Romney Gets Former IA Speaker, Gingrich Gets Manchester Newspaper

Romney 1, Gingrich: Most politicos would agree an endorsement doesn't necessarily equal votes. But since the politicos and, probably more importantly, the media, fixate on endorsements, they do bring a lot of free air time/print space. So, you could make the argument, endorsements do ultimately lead to some votes, at least increased visibility for a candidate (something candidates like Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann would love to have right now). Either way, Newt Gingrich won over the endorsement of the Manchester Union-Leader. What does that matter? The New York Times' Nate Silver lays out a pretty thoughtful statistical analysis showing that while the paper's endorsement doesn't mean automatic victory, it does seem to correlate with double-digit improvement from the candidate's poll standing at the time of the endorsement to the final vote on primary night.

Sunday, Mitt Romney also received an endorsement. Former Iowa Speaker of the House Chris Rants wrote an op-ed in the Sioux City Journal endorsing Romney. Rants supported Romney last cycle. But he had held out on his endorsement this time until now (he did briefly head Thad McCotter's presidential efforts in Iowa).

Whose endorsement matters most? I'm not sure this is an apples to apples comparison. No doubt Gingrich gets FAR more national press out of his endorsement. Using Google News, I found 904 articles mentioning the endorsement. I found just one mentioning the Rants endorsement (not counting the Sioux City Journal, of course).

The Rants' choice was a bit of a surprise to me. I figured if he hadn't already picked Romney publicly by now, he would back someone else (I mean, besides McCotter). In 2010, Rants ran his short-lived run for governor as the "ideas guy". He had all kinds of ideas for all kinds of problems in the state. That didn't translate into poll popularity or cash either. So Rants dropped out. Gingrich seems to be the "ideas guy" in the race for president. I thought there might be a natural fit between these two ideas guy. Rants said in the op-ed piece, he did narrow his choice down to Romney and Gingrich. And he feels Romney can actually win, not just the nomination, but the White House. He didn't think Gingrich could do that. We'll see what affect Rants' words have on other Iowans who haven't yet made up their minds in this race, even if Google News doesn't pick up on it.

Romney Returns to Iowa, Will Expand Iowa Efforts

Romney Returns: It's not often Iowans see Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney in person in 2011. In fact, I don't think Romney has come to the metro at all since the Republican Party of Iowa's Straw Poll in Ames in August. He did take trips to western and eastern Iowa. But it appears that is about to change. This morning, Romney spoke before several hundred employees at Nationwide Insurance in downtown Des Moines. It's just one step of what's been a slow buildup to Romney's Iowa campaign. Last week, the campaign, without any fanfare, opened its Iowa headquarters in an abandoned Blockbuster Video west of downtown. The campaign on Monday announced Romney would come for the Nationwide visit Wednesday morning. Then this morning, the campaign announced South Dakota Senator John Thune would join Romney and endorse him. Later this morning, we received another release that said Romney would hold a "teletown hall" with Iowans this afternoon. But now there's more.

Mary Kramer is a former state senate president and U.S. Ambassador to Barbados. She also serves as an adviser to Romney's campaign in Iowa. Kramer told me, "I think we'll see lots of activity, not only from Governor Romney, but his family members, other people who support him that Iowans will recognize and appreciate."

I asked her, "So we will see more and more of the campaign in December?" Kramer responded, "Correct. Yes, we will."

Kramer told me Iowa visits will include Romney's wife and sons (she specifically mentioned Josh) and surrogates like New Jersey Governor Chris Christie and former Minnesota Governor (and former presidential candidate) Tim Pawlenty.

She also talked about whether it's too late for Romney to make this strong play in the state. She doesn't think so. She said it helps because Romney met so many people last cycle. Kramer said, "I think strategically Governor Romney felt he and his supporters are well-acquainted. We learn to know each other and trust each other in the last go-around. We feel comfortable with that."

But Kramer added that Romney knows he needs to expand the base. She said, "I feel it's very important for him to connect with a very broad group of people, to connect with them because his message is so important, his message about jobs." Hence the visit before insurance employees in Des Moines today.

But what about the Iowans who have grow accustomed to having that face-to-face time each cycle with their candidates? Kramer believes that handshake they had with Romney last time will carry over into this campaign. She feels Iowans are understanding people. She said, "I'm hoping Iowans understand it's important to have a winning strategy that goes, not only here, but past here. And I think we're sophisticated enough as politicians and citizens to get that strategy."

Kramer also discounted talk that Romney doesn't have the organization to do well in the caucuses (She didn't say, by the way, he would win Iowa. She wants him to win, of course, but couldn't say he actually will). She maintains the organization is here, partly because of efforts by staff and volunteers this time, and also because of the previous level of support Romney had during his last run. She also disagrees with talk of any sort of "stealth" organization in Iowa. While she acknowledges Romney himself hasn't been here nearly as much as the last cycle, the actual work of organizing has been going on for months. And she feels that will only intensify in the campaign's final five weeks.

Romney Volunteer Drives Across Country to Des Moines

Just Wilson: We meet a lot of interesting people as we cover the Iowa Caucuses. We may have found our biggest "character" yet of this cycle. Mitt Romney just opened a campaign headquarters at a vacant building in Des Moines (He has to hope his fate is better than the former tenant, Blockbuster Video, fared). A man drove up there today. He told us he drove here from Virginia but used to live in Iowa decades ago. He told us he helped out the campaigns of both George Bush 41 and Bush 43 in previous years. What's his name, you ask? Well, we asked. He said to just call him "Wilson".

So, ladies and gentlemen, meet Wilson. And check out the pipe!


 

Republican Presidential Debate

Debate, Day After: Which Republican presidential candidate won the debate last night? Apparently, almost all of them did. I got emails from Santorum, Romney (a million of them), Perry, Bachman and Cain telling how great they did. Nothing from Paul, Gingrich or Huntsman, in case you wondered. (UPDATED: OOPS, I just found something from Paul's people criticizing Perry). Although, I don't think I've ever received one from Huntsman. I am in Iowa, you know. But the candidate who got his nickel's worth from the debate was Romney, according to the Iowa Electronics Markets.

Romney's price jumps post-debate on Iowa Electronic Markets' GOP nomination market

Mitt Romney was the big winner in Wednesday's GOP presidential candidate debate, according to traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets, as his price jumped 5 cents on the IEM's recently opened Republican nomination market.

The price of the former Massachusetts governor's contract as of 9 a.m. Thursday was 39 cents, which means traders believe he has a 39 percent probability of winning the GOP nomination. Before Wednesday's debate, his contract was trading at 34 cents.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry is still the likeliest GOP nominee, according to traders. The price of his contract is 41 cents, the same price it was selling for before the debate began.

The IEM is a real money futures market operated by the University of Iowa's Tippie College of Business. The IEM gives traders the opportunity to buy and sell contracts based on what they think the outcome of a future event will be. Contracts for the correct outcome pay off at $1, all other contracts pay off at zero. As a result, the price of the contract at any given time indicates the probability that the traders assign to the event's occurrence.

Other contracts on the GOP nominee market include Ron Paul and Michele Bachmann, both of whom were selling for 2 cents before the debate started. Post-debate, Paul's price increased slightly to 2.6 cents, while Bachmann's slumped to 1.6 cents.

The Rest of Field contract -— which represents None of the Above -— was selling for 18.2 cents Thursday morning, which means traders believe there is an 18.2 percent probability that another candidate will win the nomination. That price is down slightly from the 20 cents it was selling at before the debate.

The current prices on the IEM's Republican nomination market can be found at http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/356.html. More information on the IEM can be found at tippie.uiowa.edu/iem.

Perry Favoritie Among Investors

Pick Perry: Texas Governor Rick Perry took over as the front runner in Iowa in a new Rasmussen Poll and he is now also leading in the University of Iowa's Electronic Markets. Former Mass. Gov Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann finish out the top 3.
Here's the release:

Iowa Electronic Markets traders give Iowa caucus edge to Perry

Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets' recently opened Iowa caucus market have given Texas Gov. Rick Perry the highest likelihood of finishing as one of the top two vote getters on caucus night.

Traders also give an equal probability for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann finishing in the top two.

As of 9 a.m. Wednesday, Perry's contract was selling for 75 cents, which means traders believe he has a 75 percent probability of finishing in the top two. Bachmann and Romney were both selling for 47 cents, which means traders believe there is a 47 percent probability that either of them will finish in the top two.

The IEM's real-money Iowa Republican caucus market opened Aug. 31. The caucus market differs from other IEM markets in that contracts will pay off if the candidate they represent finishes in the top two vote getters. In other markets, only the contracts for the winning candidate pay off.

Contracts are also trading for Texas Rep. Ron Paul, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and business executive Herman Cain. Paul was trading at 29.9 cents, while both Gingrich and Cain are trading for 1 cent.

The Rest of Field contract, which represents a candidate for whom no individual contract has been issued, is selling for 26.2 cents.

The Iowa Electronic Markets is operated by the UI's Tippie College of Business as a real-money futures prediction market. Begun in 1988, the IEM is a research and teaching tool that has achieved an impressive prediction record, substantially superior to alternative mechanisms such as opinion polls. Such markets have been significantly more accurate than traditional tools in predicting outcomes ranging from political election results to movie box office receipts.

The IEM can be found online at www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem. The Iowa caucus market prices can be found at http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/355.html.

Des Moines Register Poll

Surprise, Surprise: The Des Moines Register sure just made some news with its first poll of likely Republican caucus goers for 2012. It was our understanding the poll would go up live on the Register's site at 9pm central, but it's already all over the internet about an hour early.

Nevertheless, here's my take, along with the results:


Mitt Romney: 23%. I feel surprised and not surprised by Romney's place. He's not showing Iowans much love so far this cycle but spent a bunch of time and dough in the state for 2008. So his name i.d. remains high. I wondered if more Iowans would "punish" him for skipping the state for the most part this cycle. But that doesn't really seem to be the case, at least not yet. What will this news do for the Romney camp? Will he skip the Republican Party of Iowa Straw Poll and then pick up the pace in the state after that if his poll standing stays high? Or does he think this poll shows he will do pretty well, even without spending much time here in the next 7 months, so he can save his time and money for New Hampshire and other states?

Michele Bachmann: 22%. She has to be the biggest positive surprise of the poll. And it could make for a nice weekend for her as she gets set to announce her campaign in her hometown of Waterloo in northeastern Iowa. O.K., it's really her "re-announcement" since she already announced during the CNN debate this month. Either way, this has to give her supporters a big lift. Will her campaign now show the organization and discipline it needs to carry through with a strong straw poll finish in August? And can she handle the raised expectations that will now follow thanks to this strong showing? She recently faced more "quiet" talk in Iowa that she could be one of the frontrunners. But this poll will now only intensify that talk. But it sure looks like she found a way to get back some of the attention Sarah Palin's Iowa visit this Tuesday threatened to take away, huh?


Herman Cain: 10%. I'm a bit surprised by this. He has been campaigning all over the state but I didn't know if enough Iowans knew him yet. I guess they do. I'm sure not what kind of campaign organization he has. He has some strength with the tea partiers and he knows how to fire up a crowd. I guess we'll find out in the next 7 weeks for the straw poll. But Cain has apparently made a name for himself so far. As a top 3 guy now in this poll, we will see how he faces the media scrutinty that could follow.

Newt Gingrich: 7%. I guess it's safe to say Iowa staffers aren't jumping up and down with this finish. Of course, he no longer has any paid Iowa staffers. Gingrich surely has some solid name recognition from his time in office. And this poll could show he has just a bit to go to find a top three finish. But will this month's implosion of his campaign push him down, especially since he didn't secure a site in the straw poll? And this poll was still interviewing caucus goers before his implosion had actually finished. So does it really reflect the state's full feelings toward him now? Or is this whole struggling campaign storyline overblown?

Ron Paul: 7%. I thought Paul might fare a little better. I thought he would come ahead of Cain and Gingrich. Paul has said his ideas are more mainstream this campaign, more so than the previous two times he's run for president. This poll shows he has a ways to go to find a strong showing. The straw poll could be a big test for his organizational strength to push him into the top tier.

Tim Pawlenty: 6%. Ouch. What more can you say? Pawlenty is essentially all in for Iowa. He has hired a big staff. But this poll doesn't show that he's connecting with people. He faces a TON of pressure in the next 7 weeks to up his standing for the straw poll. Does he have to shake up his staff? Does he have to change his message? Does he have to be more aggressive in his words and demeanor? What's next for him? If he doesn't pick it up, will he be done after the straw poll?


Rick Santorum: 4%. Santorum started out being not very well-known. This poll shows he has a long way to go to make a name for himself. He has spent as much time here as just about any other candidate. But it's not translating into supporters. If he finishes about this low in the straw poll, is his campaign finished?

Romney Returns

Feeling Burned: Mitt Romney made his return to Iowa. It's his first trip to the Des Moines metro in about 7 months. Last year, he came here to sell his book and to help campaign for Terry Branstad's eventual return to the governor's mansion. The event offered a pretty comfortable backdrop for Romney at the State Historical Building in Des Moines. The Greater Des Moines Partnership helped put it on in front of about 200 people. No questions on the social issues, issues Romney struggled with in the past (he has been on both sides of same-sex marriages and abortion questions, which isn't something that's endeared him to some of the social conservatives). The questions submitted by people beforehand covered money matters.

The way it turned out, Romney didn't have to answer too many questions about any topic. His opening comments were probably 20 minutes long or so. The moderator, Lynn Campbell of iowapolitics.com, (now part of The Franklin Center for Government and Public Integrity) then followed with a handful of questions about where Romney's been for the past 7 months, why he's spending a lot more time in other states like New Hampshire and whether he'll compete in the Republican Party of Iowa's high-profile candidate cattle call, AKA straw poll, in August. The answers to those questions, by the way, in order...working on his book, campaigning differently this time and he's not sure--it'll be up to his political team.

OK, my questions... does Romney really not get involved in making the decision on whether to compete in the straw poll? Does he already know that the answer is no and just doesn't want to tick off Iowa Republicans this early? Does he want to swoop in later and make a late summer surprise entrance to take part in the straw poll? Or will it just depend on which other candidates are in the race and where he stands in the polls then?

Another question...Romney talked about this campaign will be different than 2008 because these are "lean" times. True, they are. VERY lean for a lot of Iowans these days. But when Romney talks about lean times, does it have the same resonance as when Oprah, another mega-richer does? Maybe that's not fair. I don't know. But will Iowans relate to a really rich guy, who is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, when he talks about cutting back on the way he spends money?

Random question...will he ever wear a tie again? I think he has been tie-less in his last 3 Iowa appearances (all after the 2008 election). This reminds me a bit of when Al Gore tried to loosen up his image. Remember when they tried to soften him up with those earth tone suits?

Finally, the whole popcorn incident during Romney's appearance was just bizarre. The Iowa Department of Cultural Affairs spokesman Jeff Morgan told me someone Thursday had put leftover popcorn in the microwave to store it overnight so the mice wouldn't get into it (perhaps, that's a whole other matter that may need to be addressed?) and then someone Friday put in leftovers into the microwave to heat up for lunch. Oops! The double-popped popcorn started burning, the smell started filling the air and the fire alarms went off again and again. That sent Romney and the rest of us outside the building. Before we went outside, Romney said he was going to meet with people outside, sign autographs and pose for pictures. He did for about 5 or 10 minutes, then got into an SUV, stopped to talk with former Iowa Governor Bob Ray for a few minutes and then drove off. Before the event I was told he was supposed to talk with local reporters after the Q and A session (this was all before the popcorn fiasco). But we never saw Romney again.

I wonder when he'll return. And how often.

Romney Returning to Iowa

I mentioned last month (I think it was last month) that Mitt Romney would be returning to Iowa to push his new book. His people have officially released his tour schedule, which shows two Iowa stops in Des Moines and Ames next month.

Romney to Iowa

Mike Huckabee. Then, Sarah Palin. Now Mitt Romney. Let the 2012 reunion tour continue. The Boston Globe reports Romney will come back to Iowa to promote his new book, "No Apology". The paper said he will have two stops in Des Moinesa and Iowa State. The book is supposed to be a critique of the Obama presidency. Here are the details.

Romney's people, by the way, say they won't try to compete with the large crowds Palin attracted (Palin drew thousands at a book-signing in Sioux City). His people say Romney and Palin are two different people with two different styles.