Iowa Poll

Mid-term Math: The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll shows Democratic Governor Chet Culver is down a dozen points to Republican challenger Terry Branstad with just two days until the election. Sunday, Culver, the former high school government teacher, laid out the math that he claims shows this race isn't what it may seem. Democrat Roxanne Conlin also had to give her best take on the numbers that show, according to the poll, she hasn't made up any ground against Republican U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley since the last poll in September. And that means she still trails by 31 points.

Our NBC affiliate, KTIV in Sioux City, asked both "C's" about the numbers.

Major Endorsements

Major vs. Major: How will ANYONE sleep Sunday night? (yes, I'm being a little sarcastic:) First, I got a release Terry Branstad would announce a "major endorsement" on Monday. Now, I see Chet Culver will announce a "major endorsement" Monday. Culver is even sliding in his an hour earlier, or that is how it is scheduled. Here are the releases:

Branstad to announce major campaign endorsement on Monday

(URBANDALE) – Former Gov. Terry Branstad will announce a major campaign endorsement on Monday, Sept. 27, 2010 at 10 a.m. in Pleasant Hill.

The following event is open to the press:

Monday, Sept. 27, 2010

10 a.m. Gov. Terry Branstad receives major campaign endorsement
Des Moines Police Officer Recreation and Training Building
5374 E. University Ave.
Pleasant Hill, IA

Culver to Announce Major Campaign Endorsement on Monday
DES MOINES -- Governor Chet Culver on Monday will announce a major campaign endorsement. Details are below.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 27, 2010

WHAT: Governor Culver will receive a major campaign endorsement.

WHERE: Izaak Walton League, 4343 George Flagg Pkwy, Des Moines, IA

WHEN: 9:00 a.m.

Who will these "major endorsements" be? How about First Lady Mari Culver endorsing Branstad? She can say, you know, the Big Lug hasn't done a good job. It's time for someone else. Or maybe former First Lady Chris Branstad comes out in support of Culver. She can say, you know, Terry had the job for too long the first time. He had his chance. Now, those would be some "major endorsements":) Seriously, who do you think these endorsements will be and how "major" will they really be? Guess away, friends. Guess away.

Culver, the Optimist

Covering Culver: Iowa Governor Chet Culver is down by double digits in every poll I have seen in months. But in a story I saw today, the gov said he "couldn't be more optimistic."

In fact, I saw two stories involving Culver. Stateline.org wrote one with this heading, "

Iowa weathers recession, but its first-term governor, Chet Culver, may not

And MSNBC's First Read called Culver's re-election race against former 4-time Republican Governor Terry Branstad the 4th most likely to see a takeover this November.

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** First Read’s Top 10 governor takeovers: If it’s Friday, it’s time for another Top 10 list. Today, we look at what we consider the Top 10 states where a party will win/lose control of a governor’s mansion. The number in parentheses is our last ranking (from June).
1. Wyoming (1): Matt Mead won the crowded GOP primary on Tuesday, and he’s the overwhelming favorite to replace outgoing Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D).
2. Kansas (2): Hello, Gov. Sam Brownback (R).
3. Tennessee (3): It’s Bill Haslam (R) vs. Mike McWherter (D) to replace term-limited Gov. Phil Bredesen, and the moderate Haslam has the edge.
4. Iowa (7): When Gov. Chet Culver (D) is admitting to mistakes, as he did earlier this week, you know he’s in deep trouble. The GOP nominee is ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R).
5. Michigan (6): Another GOP moderate, Rick “One Tough Nerd” Snyder (R), won the GOP nomination, and he’s leading in the polls by double digits against Virg Bernero (D).
6. Hawaii (5): Democrats have a crowded field for the Sept. 18 primary – led by ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie -- but they’re the favorites here.
7. Oklahoma (4): One thing we know will happen: The Sooner State is going to elect its first female governor -- either Mary Fallin (R) or Jari Askins. Fallin is the favorite in this red state.
8. Pennsylvania (8): Attorney General Tom Corbett (R) is the clear front-runner to succeed term-limited Gov. Ed Rendell (D).
9. Connecticut (9): Democrats got their stronger candidate, ex-Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D), who faces off against former ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R).
10. Minnesota (10): Ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D), who narrowly won this month’s Dem primary, probably has the edge against Tom Emmer (R), but the race to replace retiring Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) could be closer than people think.

*** First Read’s Gubernatorial ratings:
Toss Ups: CA, FL, GA, IL, MA, MN, NM, OH, WI, RI, VT
Lean Democrat: CT, HI, ME, MD, OR
Lean Republican: IA, MI, OK, PA, TX
Probable Democrat: CO
Probable Republican: AL, AZ, ID, SC, NV, TN
Solid Democrat: AR, NH, NY
Solid Republican: AK, KS, NE, SD, UT, WY

Neither article seems likely to fill Culver supporters with much optimism for their chances this fall. Culver this week at the Iowa State Fair said again and again his office had made mistakes. It was an interesting piece of "strategery" that had some Democrats telling me they had no clue what he was trying to do. They felt the whole thing smelled of desperation. But could it actually endear Culver to Iowans who may warm up to the "Big Lug" after hearing him admit mistakes and pledging to govern better because of them? Or is this too little, too late?

Zero Coke Zero: I'm not a huge caffeine-chugger. Usually, one Coke Zero is my limit for the day. But since my son was born a month ago, I have doubled my dose. I have too many friends who went caffeine crazy, so I'm always a bit leery sucking down too much of it. Today, I tried to see if I could go the whole day with no caffeine at all. With Hayden sleeping only about 2 hours at a time still, boy, that was a mistake! I finally gave in around 5pm and not a minute too soon! Surely, he'll start sleeping longer soon, right? Please, tell me, yes!

Culver Can't Give I-JOBS Numbers; Complains about Branstad Coverage

Governor Chet Culver still can't provide numbers of how many Iowans are working because of his $875 million, taxpayer-financed I-JOBS plan, despite assurances from staff for months that those numbers would be coming. The governor said we would be getting those numbers. He did not say when. He also said 3 separate times during our interview we needed to talk with his Republican opponent, Terry Branstad, about his plan to create 200,000 jobs in five years after becoming governor again. Culver alleged no one has asked Branstad about it yet, not even one question, he claims.

For the record, I have asked Branstad about his plan (and, yes, I will agree we ALWAYS need to push Branstad and any politician, for that matter, on as many specifics as possible. And we DEFINITELY intend to keep doing that during this campaign). Radio Iowa has talked with Branstad about his plan and so has the Des Moines Register, just to name a few. So I don't know what the governor is talking about in his claims that no one has asked Branstad yet.

Anyway, here is the tv story I did on it (It follows a separate story about Culver saying the state will not pay back $576,000 the feds claim he mis-spent during his time as secretary of state). Below it, is the raw interview with the governor talking about I-JOBS.

Culver Skips Breakfast Club

There's a group of influential business/philanthropic types who meet on Tuesday mornings at Biaggi's, a West Des Moines restaurant. If you want to know who attends, just think of the most well-known last names in the area. Chances are, they're in it. The group has about 65 to 70 regular members. Last Tuesday, the group invited Terry Branstad, a Republican candidate for governor. He spoke to the group. This past Tuesday, the group invited Governor Chet Culver. He didn't speak to the group. Two members told me he never showed up and the group had no idea he would be a no show.

This is the second time in four days Culver didn't come to a planned event. Saturday, he angered Jasper County Democrats by canceling a scheduled appearance at Uncle Nancy's Coffee Shop in Newton. The shop had agreed to stay open late for the governor's appearance. One of the organizers told me Culver's campaign didn't give a reason for the cancellation. The campaign later told me the governor attended several other events that day in eastern Iowa.

As I write this at 11am, the campaign has not given me a reason as to why Culver failed to show up for The Breakfast Club meeting Tuesday.

Culver Criticizes Branstad

Iowa's race for governor is getting some national attention. It might not be the national attention Governor Chet Culver wants as an incumbent. But he comes after one of his rivals, Republican former Governor Terry Branstad, in this article in the Washington Post. Culver said Branstad "is not up for the job".

Culver Drops in Polls

Iowa Governor Chet Culver has been falling and he can't get up. At least not yet. Culver's popularity, according to the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll ,has dropped 20 points during the year and 10 points just since September. It's doubtful the budget mess or filmgate has helped his popularity efforts.

Two Republican candidates beat Culver head-to-head, one by quite a bit. Bob Vander Plaats topped Culver by 8 points. But Terry Branstad tripled that margin...24 points. Branstad is the only candidate in the poll who tops 50% popularity. TB hit 57%.

ETC...

Speaking of popularity...My wife and I hung out with about three dozen University of Missouri-Columbia journalism students this weekend. They checked out her station and then checked out mine. I'm sure they like mine better:) They were really sharp, inquisitive and bright and made me proud.

One student said something to me like, "Wait...I just figured this out. YOU'RE Dave Price." I replied, "yep". She continued, "Dave Price is the name of the best camera we have at KOMU (the NBC station in Columbia where many of the student work part-time)." Apparently, the news director named each camera after certain employees who used to work at the station over the years. Quite an honor, I thought. I was feeling pretty good about myself...well, that is, until a friend sent me this...

It's the preview on DirectTV about what airs on WHO-TV 13 on Saturday at 10pm. Apparently, some guy named "Dave Bryce" is on. Maybe I will have to tune in. (By the way, our meteorologist also has two t's in Brett.)